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http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/AmericanFlag.jpg A comparative look at the Gen-1 Volt reveals some interesting possibilities. (cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?p=227010)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2011_Chevrolet_Volt1.jpgWayne Gerdes - CleanMPG (cleanmpg.com) - Aug. 11, 2009

2011 Chevrolet Volt – ??? MSRP and 40-miles AER. It is definitely in the news today.

GM, a name that raises both ire and skepticism to many within the hypermiling community and voracious support from the “Gear heads”, many of them insiders, who believe if for nothing else that so goes GM, so goes the country. The reality is usually found somewhere in between but in terms of fuel efficiency, GM has yet to provide even a hint of leadership where others have traveled for over a decade... The “others” is of course Toyota and the iconic Prius.

Two plus years ago, an announcement in Detroit brought forth the Volt Concept and hope that GM could once again hold its head high amongst the world’s automotive manufacturing elite. Since that time, it has been a very rough road for GM as they spiraled headlong into bankruptcy. Even still, whenever a Volt pronouncement was declared, the automobile world literally stops in its tracks waiting for a hint of news as if we were collectively holding our breath. Today was again one of those days with new GM’s latest that the Chevrolet Volt will be rated at 230 Miles Per Gallon in City Driving (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24185) in an electricity to gasoline miles per gallon equivalent.

Which brings us to what this means and what we should expect? After all, other manufacturer are not sitting still waiting for the Volt to appear as each has its own electrification plans which could leave the Volt stuck in neutral long before the first one reaches your local Chevrolet dealerships lot.

Development and production costs vs. retail pricing

The Chevrolet Volt is built upon the same platform (and even the same engine with tweaks) as the $15,000 slated for production 2010 Chevrolet Cruze. So where does a $40,000 price tag for the Volt come from? A 16 kWh Li-Ion pack in OEM production quantities will surely come in at less than $8,000. A single, very high powered MGSet is probably nothing much beyond $2,000 (this is being generous) and the Inverter/Transverter is darn near an off the shelf item for less than $1,000. Additionally, GM’s Volt development is being massively subsidized through DOE grants totaling at last count near $400,000,000. Today, it sometimes costs less than this to create a fresh from a blank sheet of paper to showroom vehicle let alone the Volt’s development is being spread across the Cruze as well?

All said, there are special design considerations for the Volt but when it comes down to vehicle costs, $30,000 easily takes care of the basics including R&D, design, manufacturing, profit and the ever important marketing push from prelaunch until its demise all-in. GM is either relying on the Volt to make a huge profit right out of the box with early adopters grabbing up however few will be manufactured in year one and two or GM will bring it in well under $35,000 price tag fully equipped with the $7,500 tax credit leading the charge. Success and also ran status is as close as a $32,500 price tag vs. a $40,000 one...

Fuel Economy?

230 mpg equivalent seems a bit optimistic and even though the Volt can run the EPA’s 5-test cycles in all-electric mode from start to finish, the RAV4EV was rated at just 124 mpgUS on the EPA city cycle with a 270 Wh/mile efficiency rating. The Volt is promising less than a 10% improvement over that vehicle at 250 Wh/mile so take GM’s numbers as real for a future EPA PHEV/BEV city test cycle of some sort.

Let us take the FE rating out of the equation and come up with an actual $ cost for a given number of miles. At $0.11/kWh (some areas are a lot more and some a lot less), it costs upwards of $412.50 for 15,000 miles of travel/year if you were to drive the entire 15,000 miles on electricity only! This is certainly possible and I would like to see this in practice but even under the most optimistic of scenarios, I suspect the Volt will do at least 25% of its miles on gasoline. This brings the Volt’s electric costs down to $309 per year.

Volt FE during the “Charge Sustaining” mode or while on the gas. Let us look at GM’s own releases for an estimate to this conundrum. GM has stated the Volt will achieve at least 300-miles beyond the 40-mile range of the Li-Ion pack in “Charge Depletion” mode or while only on the pack. With an estimate 8-gallon tank, this places the Volt’s FE at a paltry 37.5 mpg. If they had a 400 + range on gasoline (50 mpg on the same 8-gallons), it would have probably been announced already? I will give GM the benefit of the doubt here and say the Volt will achieve 50 mpg when not running off the pre-charged pack from the plug. This would mean that of the 15,000 miles/yr, 3,750 miles would be on gasoline at 50 mpg. Using an average future cost of $5.00 per gallon from 2011 – 2016 (seems plausible if not much higher), the Volt’s gasoline consumption will cost $375/year.

Total cost of ownership

GM has never done well when it comes to total cost of ownership due to poor resale on just about everything they manufacture. We can hope the Volt will turn this problem around but it is doubtful this will change GM’s track record. Meaning Volts with 75K on the clock and a $15,000 (retail priced) pack somewhat used up will more than likely be going for far less than 50% of the retail price. This will more than likely be the Volt’s true Achilles heel.

Basic TCO analysis (5-years/15,000 miles)*

Make|Model|Price ($USD)**|Fuel|Fuel costs ($USD)***|Total Costs (USD)
Chevrolet|Volt(1)|$32,500|Gasoline and Electricity|$3,420|$35,920
Chevrolet|Volt(2)|$25,000|Gasoline and Electricity|$3,420|$28,420
Toyota|Prius-III|$23,000|Gasoline|$7,500|$30,500
Honda|Insight-II EX|$21,300|Gasoline|$9,146|$30,446
* Excluding financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance and of course depreciation (a Volt risk in anyone’s book).

** Volt(1) - $40,000 MSRP and Volt(2) - $32,500 MSRP minus a $7,500 tax credit for both.

*** Gasoline at $5.00 per gallon, electricity at $0.11/kWh, Volt and Prius-III at
50 mpg, Insight-II at 41 mpgUS. All traveling 75,000 miles over 5-years.

If Volt pricing comes in at $40,000, I can think of a lot other vehicles that you should place your $’s into. At $32,500, the depreciation risk will be worth taking while not having to fill up with gasoline for at least 75% of your travels. Additionally, the Volt would not only be your best choice assuming the Tax Credit is actually available without a future AMT hit but the only choice we will recommend other than the upcoming 100-mile, all-electric-range 2010 Nissan “Leaf” or 2011 Ford Focus BEVs.

2011 Chevrolet Volt – Automotive winner or loser still depends on price.

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2011_Chevrolet_Volt_Passenger_Side.jpghttp://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2011_Chevrolet_Volt_Rear_Hatch_Open.jpg

My take on the $40000 price tag is that GM is going to price it at $47500 and the $40000 price will be *after* the tax credit, similar to how Tesla is marketing the Model S.

Then again, maybe I'm a cynic.

Has anyone talked about the issue of gas going bad for those of us that could go on all electric year round? I think this is a major issue for PHEV's. I have gone almost 4 months on 1 tank and did not see any issues but if someones commute can be done on all electric what will happen to the gas? Will the car force its self to use a tank of gas every X months just so it wont go bad? or will GM be fixing gas tanks, lines, and injectors due to bad gas?

Hi Jay:

___We have talked about it and you can bet there will be people that will never use a drop. What happens when the gas is 2, 3 or even 4 years old has not yet been released that I know of. Sean follows the Volt details a bit more closely and he should be around tomorrow to let us know what he knows.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

hi guys,no gas for 2-4 years what a nice problem.they could just have a petcock on the bottom of the gas tank,drain it once ayear.

Hi, Jay! Personally, I'm not too concerned about it as I've driven on 8mo old gas with no issues at all in the Elantra -- I believe the fuel system is sealed well enough that the fuel can't outgas enough to really deteriorate. When I can still get 70+mpg out of it at that age, I don't think there is much to worry about.

As for the Volt, nothing official has been stated other than "GM has been working on this and has an innovative solution." Not a whole lot to go off of there. :p

I've never had any problems with gasoline in my motorcycle over the winter. I do use Stabil, and put some in early winter and run the bike to get it through the fuel system. The bike is fuel-injected, so the system is not prone to evaporation.

Harry

About the $40000 price tag: I'm reading a book about behavioral economics called Predictably Irrational, and the author, Dan Ariely, talks about price anchors, how we don't really know how to establish a value on something until we have a price anchor, i.e. the initial price estimate.

Businesses will often release something expensive, then release a more expensive product; after the second release, the first expensive product sells well. Businesses will also announce a high price initially, then lower it once the product hits the market. I wonder if that's what GM is doing here: claiming a $40,000 price tag that they know will seem high, then announce a lower one just before the car hits showrooms. The $40,000 anchor seems high, but anything lower seems much more reasonable because of the high price anchor.

Just a thought. Maybe it'll actually retail at $40,000 and no one will buy it.

I just really hope they don't literally stack up like this:

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/506/Resize_of_EV-1_Crushed_2.jpg

Will history (EV1) repeat itself?? :eek:

I don't think the Volt will "stack up" like the EV-1 because they are being sold and not leased. What killed the EV1, depending on who you listen to, was the cost of ongoing maintenance. The leased EV1 was produced in such low volume that the supply and cost of parts made the cars too expensive to keep on the road. The Volt will be sold rather than leased with a closed end "you can't buy it at any price" agreement, so people will get the car along with any maintenance costs over the long term. That's a big question mark, since I don't see GM doing what Honda did with the Insight-I and extending the warranty to cover early battery and controller issues.

Unless fuel costs in 2011-2015 spike like they did last year and stay at a high level, the Volt will be a tough sell, regardless of its real or imagined performance or reliability. The gas-only Volt - to be sold as the Cruze - is half the price. And the vast majority of buyers don't calculate future fuel savings when determining what they can afford for a monthly payment. Based on what has been released so far, the Volt is not measuring up at its rumored price point. Judging from the ongoing development of the Cadillac Coupe de Volt, I think GM knows this, and they're betting that the 2 door Converj will sell to Cadillac buyers in greater quantities than the Volt will sell down the street at the Chevy dealer.

My take on the $40000 price tag is that GM is going to price it at $47500 and the $40000 price will be *after* the tax credit, similar to how Tesla is marketing the Model S.

Then again, maybe I'm a cynic.

I'll see your cycicism and raise you one.

I predict that that not only will the Volt *start* at $47,500 as a "base", but a decently equipped Vold will probably go for $55k+. They will probably only sell it in seven states instead of all 50 (like they did with the Silverado Hybrid). Then they'll have to make sure that none of the dealers know how to sell it. Oh, they'll also make sure that any customer who wants one will have to wait six months to get one.

After all that, then GM will complain that nobody's interested in fuel economy, har har, and they'll get back to making 8 MPG fuel-guzzling hogs.

For the sake of GM and the taxpayers who own almost 2/3 of it, I hope we're all proven wrong and that the car delivers what it promises on time and under budget.

With the "buy it now" date still two years away (on sale early 2011, and then hopefully dealers stop gouging by mid-year as inventory levels rise), and with the economy either getting better or getting worse, depending on which channel you watch, the success of the Volt will depend on a few variables that can't easily be predicted.

If they do price it at $40k+, and the dealers tack on another $10k "regional market adjustment", and if the quality/performance isn't best or among the best, this thing will be a multi-billion dollar flop. And it'd just about wipe out the company, with the public outrage forcing a boycott of anything they build.

Currently, GM is selling cars based on incentives. Some favorable auto press earned by a few models has brought people into the showrooms. Without the incentives, their pricing isn't attractive enough to tilt the value equation significantly in their favor, and sales flatten out. If the dealers don't recognize that they're playing a big part in the success or failure of the car and the company, and they try to bump that first digit on the sticker up by "1" to make some money on the one or two they get in, we will watch the whole Volt story crash-n-burn.

I believe in the sincerity and dedication of the Volt engineering team. I believe that there are many executives within the company who want to see the Volt get to market on time and ultimately sell in significant numbers. I think the board members have been scared straight by the filing in June, and hopefully they will stay on the track they claim to be on. The only unknown quantity is the dealer network. With shady sales practices and poor service, they can completely wipe out any hope of the Volt's success.

I don't know what to think about the Volt right now. I'm not assuming that GM will screw it up (because only a flock of total incompetents would release it to market without making absolutely 100% sure that the quality is top-notch). And I am assuming that the 40mi range / ~40mpg range-extender mode are legitimate figures. But the tides are turning quickly in favor of full BEVs. Suddenly the price of large format Lithium Ion packs is coming down, the likes of Nissan and BYD are making real moves to put the cars in the hands of consumers, and Tesla is threatening to move down several price points with new and desireable products. Who would really want the complexity of a PHEV-40 when 100-200mi range BEVs will be available for $10k less?

Yeah, that's a great point, Tim. The potential for the technology to leap-frog the Volt altogether is significant. I mean, hybrids are really the transitional product, with EVs as the ultimate goal, right? I'm already planning for my next car to be an EV, and it may be sooner than I think if I end up selling my HCH2 when I move to SanFran this fall. (then buying a new car when I head out to the suburbs a few years later...)

-keith