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Just 18 percent of global oil tapped, Saudi says (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14814230/)

AP - Sept 13, 2006

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/GOM_Oil_Rig.jpg
Recent new supply from the Gulf of Mexico can supply the US for .5 - 2.5 years.

VIENNA, Austria - The world has tapped only 18 percent of the total global supply of crude, a leading Saudi oil executive said Wednesday, challenging the notion that supplies are petering out.

Abdallah S. Jum’ah, president and CEO of the state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known better as Aramco, said the world has the potential of 4.5 trillion barrels in reserves - enough to power the globe at current levels of consumption for another 140 years.

Jum’ah challenged oil ministers and petroleum executives at an OPEC conference in Vienna to step up exploration “and leave the minimum amount of oil in the ground.”

“The world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional potential,” Jum’ah said, contending that should lay to rest fears that the world is in danger of being tapped out within a few decades.

Many experts estimate that the planet’s recoverable oil resource is at least 3 trillion barrels and potentially more than 4 trillion barrels. If global consumption rises about 2 percent a year from today’s levels of about 85 million barrels a day, they say, the low end of that range would only be enough to last until roughly 2070.

Rex W. Tillerson, the chairman of Exxon Mobil Corp., said world demand for oil will increase by 50 percent in the next decade.

“When nations threaten to stop this flow, it stops economic progress worldwide,” Tillerson said.

Industry leaders have gathered this week to take stock of new challenges at the conference sponsored by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Earlier this week, the 11-nation cartel agreed to leave its current production target of 28 million barrels a day unchanged, but made clear it would keep close tabs on falling oil prices and consider a possible cut in its output quota before the end of the year.

Crude prices have tumbled to five-month lows and have dropped by more than $12 a barrel since hitting record highs in mid-July. Analysts say a combination of ample supplies and an easing of political tensions such as the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon and progress in talks on Iran’s suspect nuclear program have driven prices lower.

“When prices are high, passions can run high,” Tillerson said. “Economic nationalism may gain in popularity” at the expense of developing global markets and the world economy, he said.

“The new era we face, like all of the previous ones, is not an era of easy oil — nor will it be an era of easy answers. But it can be an era of continued economic advancement,” he said.

Jum’ah challenged explorationists to find enough new oil resources to add 1 trillion barrels to world reserves over the next 25 years, saying new technology and higher recovery rates would make it possible to hit that target.

Already, he noted, drilling is now going on as deep as 10,000 feet below the Gulf of Mexico and 7,000 to 8,000 feet elsewhere. Experts say a newly discovered petroleum pool beneath the Gulf of Mexico eventually could yield anywhere from 3 billion to 15 billion barrels

Many experts estimate that the planet’s recoverable oil resource is at least 3 trillion barrels and potentially more than 4 trillion barrels. If global consumption rises about 2 percent a year from today’s levels of about 85 million barrels a day, they say, the low end of that range would only be enough to last until roughly 2070. Jum’ah thinks it will last until about 2150

Rex W. Tillerson, the chairman of Exxon Mobil Corp., said world demand for oil will increase by 50 percent in the next decade.

Jum’ah challenged explorationists to find enough new oil resources to add 1 trillion barrels to world reserves over the next 25 years (i.e. 3 to 4 billion), saying new technology and higher recovery rates would make it possible to hit that target.

Hasn't Jum'ah heard about global warming?! We have to leave that stuff in the ground. Unlike Al Gore, I don't have much faith that humanity will react quickly enough, if at all, to coming changes. Oil/coal is just too cheap, abundant, and energy rich. I can see us pumping the ground dry and then looking about confused:confused: and asking, "now what?"

Don't know if you are familiar with the term "thermal equator", but it's not as simple as the land masses closest to the equator. Land masses and oceans are irregular - so is the tempature. That's why Europe has relatively moderate weather - it's a collection of pennusulas. Antartica is the coldest place because it's a big polar land mass with an average elevatio of about 7.000 feet - no large land masses in the center of the Artic.

Where is the thermal equator? On some maps, it's basically the area surrounding and including Saudi Arabia westward thru Saharian Africa - the Arab-Muslim world.

Like it or not, Jum'ah is living on the thermal equator. The US Southwest and Central Asia is pretty close, too.

I'm expecting in time to hear a conspiracy theory that Global Warming was devised by the West against the Islamic world. It's just I've heard so many wierd theories I figure this one is coming. Need to stress I don't wish Global Warming or any other malady targeted on anyone.

It seems like summer and warmer climates tend to have more violence and wars. Police have more work in the summer, and not many wars have occured in Canada or Scandavia. Heck, Russia sends prisoners to Siberia to chill out. :D Someone might shoot holes in that generalization, but I'd bet it comes from the Sunbelt - not the Frostbelt. :D

Shame on me, I started this thread and took it on a tangent....

I don't have a problem with oil CONSUMPTION, but I do think it should be BURNED less. Let's face it: our civilization depends on plastic as much as it depends on transportation. And we need oil to make plastic.

We should save the oil for manufacturing, not driving.

Sounds like he's ignoring a key part of the peak oil concept, which doesn't really have anything to do with the quantity of oil left in the ground. Rather, it has to do with the ease with which we can extract it. Just because there exists enough oil to get us to 2070 or 2150 or whatever, doesn't mean that it's going to be a viable energy source all the way until the end. Once it gets down to just the oil shales, tar sands, and ultra-deep reserves, production inherently slows. It's more energy intensive, more time intensive, and thus more costly. This is fine for the Saudis because supply vs. demand will put a barrel of oil into the hundreds of dollars. But life sucks for everyone who still depends on it because we thought we had so much.

We need to get off the stuff any way you slice it.

As I get older, it seems people say things to influence or manipulate.

Maybe Jum'ah's motive is "don't worry about alternatives - it's going to last a long time...". Perhaps he is fearful that the West will make serious headway in alternative energy sources and seriously cut into his profits (although US consumption should not worry him. ;) )