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xcel
02-14-2009, 07:49 AM
“You may have just made the decision that destroyed the world. Absolutely terrifying moment.” (cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?p=187759)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/Frontline_-_Inside_the_Meltdown.jpgWayne Gerdes – CleanMPG (cleanmpg.com) – Feb. 14, 2009

On Sept 16, 2008, all around the world, Money Stopped...

FRONTLINE investigates the causes of the worst economic crisis in 70 years and how the government responded. The film chronicles the inside stories of the Bear Stearns deal, Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the propping up of insurance giant AIG, and the $700 billion bailout. Inside the Meltdown examines what Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t see, couldn’t stop and haven’t been able to fix.

On Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008, the astonished leadership of the U.S. Congress was told in a private session by the chairman of the Federal Reserve that the American economy was in grave danger of a complete meltdown within a matter of days. “There was literally a pause in that room where the oxygen left,” says Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.).

FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk goes behind closed doors in Washington and on Wall Street to investigate how the economy went so bad so fast and why emergency actions by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson failed to prevent the worst economic crisis in a generation on Inside the Meltdown, airing Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2009, at 9 P.M. ET on PBS.

As the housing bubble burst and trillions of dollars’ worth of toxic mortgages began to go bad in 2007, fear spread through the massive firms that form the heart of Wall Street. By the spring of 2008, burdened by billions of dollars of bad mortgages, the investment bank Bear Stearns was the subject of rumors that it would soon fail.

“Rumors are such that they can just plain put you out of business,” Bear Stearns’ former CEO Alan “Ace” Greenberg tells FRONTLINE.

The company’s stock had dropped from $171 to $57 a share, and it was hours from declaring bankruptcy. Ben Bernanke acted. “It was clear that this had to be contained. There was no doubt in his mind,” says Bernanke’s colleague economist Mark Gertler.

Bernanke, a former economics professor from Princeton, specialized in studying the Great Depression. “He more than anybody else appreciated what would happen if it got out of control,” Gertler explains.

To stabilize the markets, Bernanke engineered a shotgun marriage between Bear Sterns and the commercial bank JPMorgan, with a promise that the federal government would use $30 billion to cover Bear Stearns’ questionable assets tied to toxic mortgages. It was an unprecedented effort to stop the contagion of fear that seemed to be threatening the rest of Wall Street.

While publicly supportive of the deal, Secretary Paulson, a former Wall Street executive with Goldman Sachs, was uncomfortable with government interference in the markets. That summer, he issued a warning to his former colleagues not to expect future government bailouts, saying he was concerned about a legal concept known as moral hazard.

Within months, however, Paulson would witness the virtual collapse of the giant mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and preside over their takeover by the federal government.

The episode sent shockwaves through the economy as confidence in Wall Street began to evaporate. Within days, in September 2008, another investment bank, Lehman Brothers, was on the brink of collapse. Once again, there were calls for Bernanke and Paulson to bail out the Wall Street giant. But Paulson was under intense political pressure from conservative Republicans in Washington to invoke moral hazard and let the company fail.

“You had a conservative secretary of the Treasury and conservative administration. There was right-wing criticism over Bear Stearns,” says Congressman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

Paulson pushed Lehman’s CEO Dick Fuld to find a buyer for his ailing company. But no company would buy Lehman unless the government offered a deal similar to the one Bear Stearns had received. Paulson refused, and Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy.

FRONTLINE then chronicles the disaster that followed. Within 24 hours, the stock market crashed, and credit markets around the world froze. “We’re no longer talking about mortgages,” says economist Gertler. “We’re talking about car loans, loans to small businesses, commercial paper borrowing by large banks. This is like a disease spreading.”

“I think that the secretary of the Treasury could not fully comprehend what that linkage was and the extent to which this would materialize into problems,” says former Lehman board member Henry Kaufman.

Paulson was thunderstruck. “This is the utter nightmare of an economic policy-maker,” Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman tells FRONTLINE. “You may have just made the decision that destroyed the world. Absolutely terrifying moment.”

In response, Paulson and Bernanke would propose—and Congress would eventually pass—a $700 billion bailout plan. FRONTLINE goes inside the deliberations surrounding the passage of the legislation and examines its unsuccessful implementation.

“Many Americans still don’t understand what has happened to the economy,” FRONTLINE producer/director Michael Kirk says. “How did it all go so bad so quickly? Who is responsible? How effective has the response from Washington and Wall Street been? Those are the questions at the heart of Inside the Meltdown.”

Financial Armageddon – The Meltdown - Feb 17 on a PBS station near you.

brick
02-14-2009, 08:52 AM
Thanks for the heads-up. Frontline is always worth watching.

chief302
02-14-2009, 09:19 AM
Yes, I've set my DVR.

GrendelKhan
02-14-2009, 09:52 AM
Thanks, I'll watch it. I'm going to be so depressed...

Indigo
02-14-2009, 10:02 AM
The way I see it, we had eight years of Bush allowing the super-wealthy to just steal and steal and steal until all the real wealth of America was located in secret private bank accounts in the Caymen Islands. What do a handful of trillionaires care if their actions ruined the world's economy? They got to steal what they wanted, with Bush's blessing.

Right Lane Cruiser
02-14-2009, 10:45 AM
Indigo, this has already been discussed at length. The seeds of this were sown back in the 90's. Besides, despite what many people apparently believe... this country is not run by a monarchy. There is no possible way to lay all of the blame (or praise) for something accomplished by our government on the back of one person. Singlehandedly, the President isn't really able to accomplish much.

kngkeith
02-14-2009, 11:24 AM
Sean-
Thank you

Keith

Chuck
02-14-2009, 11:44 AM
A reply to Toyota to suspend car production in Japan (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18553) below...
Is it time for Bush to say "Mission Accomplished" for the global economy? At least things can start heading in the right direction in 13 days and 22 hours.GWB has been blamed for a lot of things, but for Toyota's problems?! That would probably get a laugh from the rank-and-file UAW members. Granted, the outgoing administration is to blame for many things, but the quote above is blaming him for virtually everything - can you see what credibility there is in that? ;)

May I suggest a reasoned response? There are plenty:

After 9/11, Pres. Bush suggested we continue to spend...problem was we as a country went overboard and maxed out our credit cards, made 2nd mortages....now we have a deep recession and the country in general is broke and afraid to spend any money it has.
Underestimating the cost of the Iraq conflict: Ousting Saddam was easy, but the occupation was underestimated...100,000 troups for two years sounded too pie-in-the-sky. The cost of Iraq is at least a trillion dollars - about the cost of Vietnam in today's dollars, but it's likely to exceed that. At the start, the cost was probably estimated at maybe $300B? Bottom line was they knew how to win the war, but utterely failed to win the peace.
Too easy credit terms: Home loans were made to people that would have never qualified - confirmed once the economy started to sag. Now we have bank failures not seen since the 1930's.
Taking a pass on serious fuel economy standards: The program under the Clinton adminstration was shelfed, even though GM, Chrysler, Ford all produced sedans that got at least 72mpg old EPA - replaced by a fuel cell program that went nowhere. This pass on tough love set Detroit up for a line that would be utterly uncompetitive when gas spiked to $4 a gallon, then the easy credit vanished. Now it's a foregone conclusion Chrysler's days as an independent company is gone....maybe they merge with someone or maybe they liquidate. Ford will probably survive, but GM is a coin toss.

brick
02-14-2009, 11:53 AM
I don't really want to listen to Bush-bashing either. I'm no fan, but I think Sean and Chuck have good points. It may have gone over the edge under his watch, and he may not have done much to help, but he didn't do it by himself. It's time to look forward to cleaning up the mess. Like it or not, it's up to us.

fuzzy
02-14-2009, 02:13 PM
... eight years of Bush ... with Bush's blessing.

The Time Magazine list of the top 25 persons to blame in this affair (referenced in another thread) shows Bush quite a ways down the list. And he his seated right next to --- Bill Clinton. And both of them rank far behind a person named 'American Consumers'.

Bush allowed it to speed up, but it took much longer than 8 years to create this catastrophe.

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350,00.html

jimepting
02-14-2009, 03:59 PM
Largely I agree that the blame is far from all being Bush's. I fault him for beating the "antiregulation" drum to hard and too long. It turns out that we actually DO need someone to watch the foxes least they all find their way into all of the chicken coops. But the source of the problem, if one can point to something as easy as a single source, is too much easy credit.

msirach
02-14-2009, 04:23 PM
Ashen: With a brazen statement like that, I would like to see some fact to follow up where it came from? Please post a link to a credible story that would back your statement up.

The way I see it, we had eight years of Bush allowing the super-wealthy to just steal and steal and steal until all the real wealth of America was located in secret private bank accounts in the Caymen Islands. What do a handful of trillionaires care if their actions ruined the world's economy? They got to steal what they wanted, with Bush's blessing.

Indigo
02-14-2009, 04:37 PM
Well, I'm not going to say that Bush engineered this mess on *purpose*. But it's hard to not accuse him of being asleep at the switch for the bulk of his presidency. His answer to to the post-911 recession was for Americans to spend more and accrue more debt. He wasn't particularly interested in a coherent energy policy, despite the fact that gasoline fluctuated wildly between $1.29-$4.25. He was too gung-ho on deregulation (why not give a $250k "no-doc" mortgage loan to someone with no proven income?!) He didn't do a heck of a lot to beef up the American manufacturing base. And although his administration did fund a lot of FCV and ethanol research, it became apparent early on that these were technological dead-ends (but the money kept being spent anyway).

Of course, the housing finance crunch wasn't helped by Katrina -- which happened just in time for the President's "get tough" bankruptcy reform to go into effect.

I'm thinking that the *real* cost of the Iraq war is hard to calculate. We didn't need this war. Really lousy fact checking got us into that mess.

So, yes, Bush didn't do it on purpose. But he was President when the crap hit the fan, so I hold him accountable.

xmr
02-14-2009, 04:48 PM
there is enough blame to go around but no one has mentioned that Bush pushed through a tax cut for the wealtiest 5% that cut tax revenue by 1.35 Trillion per year and started the balloning of our national deficit. This irresponsible act helped to fuel the stupidity of Wall street.

owlmaster08
02-14-2009, 07:28 PM
The Time Magazine list of the top 25 persons to blame in this affair (referenced in another thread) shows Bush quite a ways down the list. And he his seated right next to --- Bill Clinton. And both of them rank far behind a person named 'American Consumers'.

Bush allowed it to speed up, but it took much longer than 8 years to create this catastrophe.

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350,00.html

American Consumers, eh? NOO! It can't be our own fault! It's ALWAYS someone else's fault!!

azraelswrd
02-14-2009, 07:32 PM
Yup, I was hoping they would show this episode last week but nooooooo... it had to be trumped for Lincoln's requisite birthday special. :p Can't wait and if anyone misses it, they always have the episode online at the PBS website. Win-win.

Kinder
02-14-2009, 07:39 PM
WRT to the Time list, the polling there suggests Bush was 2nd most responsible, after the American consumer. Third is Phil Gramm, then Alan Greenspan, and fifth is B Clinton.

spitfiregirl52
02-14-2009, 08:44 PM
Quote: Delta Flyer ~
Too easy credit terms: Home loans were made to people that would have never qualified

My political science class was VERY interesting last semester and the way my professor explained this is that for example: If a person, say Mr. Smith, walked into a bank and wanted a loan, even if he wasn't qualified, Bank A would insist that he got a loan that didn't have a fixed rate and that Mr. Smith would only pay the interest on for the first 5 years, or something like that. So Mr. Smith's payments would look small and then eventually grow to outrageous amounts. Meanwhile, Bank A would pocket let's say $25,000 and sell Mr. Smith's loan to another bank down the line: Bank B. Bank B would pocket the same or more and sell to a third bank and so on and so forth. However, the banks are "making money" on a loan that wasn't even going to see the first payment.

My teacher also told me another interesting fact that in 2007, although the shareholders of the 5 huge banks to go under (goldman sachs, lehman bros, merrill lynch, morgan stanley and bear sterns) lost a total of $74 B, the executives of these banks were kind enough to give themselves bonuses that reached a total of $39 B. (I went back and looked in my notes so I'm pretty sure these numbers are accurate but I don't have a website to back it)

xcel
02-14-2009, 09:16 PM
Hi Spitfiregirl:

___Your Prof was right on the (5) largest 2008 Wall Street Bankers bonus' which makes absolutely no sense given the stock performance of these companies and the Hundreds of Billions to bail them out let alone the actual damage they have inflicted upon the general economy that will easily surpass $1 Trillion this year alone.

___From my understanding, the sales of the mortgages from bank to bank with a $25,000 profit on each is a bit much but the Wall Street Bankers were leveraging these things at 30 and 40:1 and selling them to anyone that had a pulse. Maybe the CMO's ended up as a $25K profit from bank to bank with nothing other than the house to back the underlying mortgage but the $25,000 creation diminishes as each takes their cut in the order in which they were received.

___All in, it makes me absolutely sick and both the politicos and the bankers are playing footsie with one another instead of fixing the issues that really save our $’s. One of the Tarp hearings had a recording of a treasury employee telling the bankers that the Bonus structure regulations will be so watered down and filled with holes that exec compensation will continue unabated. This really is a bunch of BS and I hope Geithner's changes the way these SOB’s do business on our $’s.

___We will be very lucky as a country to escape this calamity and if we do not, those that did make or are still making the huge salaries via bonus’, wages, stock options or other hidden compensation will walk away sitting fat dumb and happy while the US sinks into a deeper mire for as long as two decades or more.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Bruce
02-14-2009, 10:53 PM
...while the US sinks into a deeper mire for as long as two decades or more.

Look to Japan's lost decade for our future, where a 60-hour workweek is common. The bottom line is that everybody that's left with a job will be working a lot more hours for a lot less pay to make ends meet within a few years, if not already.

Between hyperinflation and increased energy costs from increased demand by other countries that recover first, these are the the good old days before the $%^& really hit the fan for those of us still employed. Enjoy them while they last.

We'll all be working until we're disabled or drop dead, and there won't be any safety net for the disabled, so take care of yourselves.

spitfiregirl52
02-16-2009, 03:22 AM
I think my prof. was just giving the $25K as an example. Just to show how the banks were pocketing money. It was a really cool lecture to be a part of. Anyways, what I don't understand is how the CEO's are getting away with this (and are continuing to!). During the Great Depression, I suppose I do remember learning about "fat cats" but I don't think it was to this degree? However, "all the money [they] stole will never buy back [their] soul[s]." -Bob Dylan

jimepting
02-16-2009, 11:23 AM
I think we are in for a "lost" decade. The expectations of Americans are still very high, and will be slow to adjust to the end of the "drunken" debt binge.

The stimulus package just kinda props up the house of cards for a few months to a year longer. I don't see much promise of significant improvement and in fact I think the deterrioration has just begun. The economists I listen to say that the downward spiral is accelerating.

xcel
02-17-2009, 01:04 AM
Hi All:

___ FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk was on Charlie Rose tonight. If the interview he gave is even 10% as good as what the show “Inside the Meltdown” is, nobody should miss this. Sit your kids, your spouse and even parents down in front of the TV because this appears to be one of those you do not want to miss as this show will probably be the best drama any of us have seen in years. Kirk’s interview alone brought chills...

___Do not miss this one.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

xcel
02-17-2009, 09:04 PM
Hi All:

___Bumping for those that have not read. It is on right now on the East Coast and in parts of the Midwest. Milwaukee now. Chicago in the next hour.

___Do not miss it.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

FireEngineer
02-18-2009, 10:22 AM
Astounding program on events of the past year. Now if they would do one on what led up to this economic nightmare I think people might sober up and accept the coming changes.

Wayne

greenrider
02-18-2009, 11:02 AM
I had the opportunity to watch this last night and found it very informative. Frontline laid out the crisis clearly and gave me an understanding of the forces at work in a way I hadn't heard it explained elsewhere. When talking about the global financial crisis, I just don't think the average person truly grasps the depth and breadth of the issue, or how close the world, as well as the US, came to financial Armageddon. I'd encourage anyone who missed the show to watch it on the PBS website.

The crisis, however, does present an opportunity to make a more permanent modification in the lifestyle expectations and energy use habits of Americans and the world. As we learned last summer, there is no force like financial pain to modify behaviors.



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