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Hybrid sales plunged 43 percent in December and 50 percent in November. (http://www.courierpress.com/news/2009/jan/23/do-the-math/)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2010_Prius-III_Drivers_Side_Front_Headline_Pic.jpgDan Strumpf – courierpress (http://www.courierpress.com) – Jan. 23, 2009

How many people actually believe fuel costs won't go back up?? --Ed.

Last summer was a good time to be in the hybrid business. Gas prices climbed to new records, and Toyota couldn't make its Prius fast enough as drivers turned their heads with envy at the sight of the gas-sipper's eye-catching sloping roofline.

Just a few months later, pump prices have collapsed, and so too have sales of gas-electric vehicles, which have lost ground along the way to cheaper but still fuel-efficient conventional vehicles.

Paying thousands of extra dollars for a hybrid car when gas topped $4 a gallon wasn't unreasonable because with enough driving, it only took a few years to recoup the added cost. But with the economy mired in a recession and fuel prices at their lowest in six years, pinched consumers seem less willing to fork over the extra thousands of dollars for a car that coaxes just a few extra miles out of a gallon of gas.

At this point, buying a hybrid makes as much economic sense as buying a gas-guzzling SUV did last summer.

"The cost-benefit analysis doesn't support the decision to buy one of these higher-priced hybrids today," said Stephen Spivey, senior auto analyst for the consulting firm Frost & Sullivan.

"Obviously, if fuel prices go back up, it's going to be more attractive to look at a hybrid."

Automakers are counting on just that. Toyota Motor Corp. earlier this month unveiled its Lexus HS250h hybrid sedan and redesigned 2010... http://www.courierpress.com/news/2009/jan/23/do-the-math/

too bad they don't make glasses for short sighted sheeple.

They'll change their minds and start whining again once prices eventually rise.

I dunno, encouraging anyone to take on another 20k plus of debt load to get into a new Hybrid is a tough sell in these uncertain economic times. In a recession, cash is King, and it makes much better sense to buy a used smaller car, and bank the difference as a "wait and see" until we get better times (probably LATE in 2009).

And by then we may have a LOT more options to choose from (thinking PHEV or BEV). The Poulsen Hybrid idea is attractive too, at a projected $5k (clamps two pancake motors on the outside of the rear wheels, and creates a kind of PHEV. But it looks like Poulsen has gone into hybernation mode until the gas prices start to go back up, for the moment).

How does $750 cash back on the Prius change things?
http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18958


If you're comparing new hybrids to used economy cars, the used car will win hands down. This is especially true if the used car is paid off. Any new car would have to make about 500 mpg to match my old Civic financially. However, comparing new cars to new hybrid cars is a different picture. If you're buying a new car anyway, it's worth doing the math.

If you're buying a new car anyway, it's worth doing the math.

Bingo. This is the argument I keep making to people. It is in the same category as luxury features -- if you are going to spend the money anyway... why not?

Hello all

I've been trolling for a very long time. I have a 2007 HCHII and love it. The whole idea is to use the as little oil as you can. I went from 1990 300e at 20mpgs using premium on a good day, to 47 on any given day. I was going to be buying a new car and getting a loan. I had a price I was willing to pay for any car. I decided that it was better to get a high mpg car for x, then a lower mpg for the same x amount. By the way the money I saved on the gas at the higher amount this last year alone paid for the extra amount I paid for the Hybrid-ness of my purchase. Between the gas savings and the mileage allowance, the car does not cost me any money other than insurance. It was the best decision I have made on a car purchase. My other car is a 2006 jetta tdi and I feel that it was a great purchase also compared to what the TDI replaced.

Thanks
Brian

Welcome to CleanMPG!

I bought the Yaris in July and would have loved to get into a Prius or other hybrid. Bottom line was even with $4.00 a gallon gas I simply could not afford the monthly payments of the hybrid.

I did need a new, well a different and reliable, vehicle for commuting. Newer model used fuel efficient cars were selling for $10,000 and had 70,000 or more miles on them. The ones selling for less would put me back in the original place with a used vehicle that might/might not need repairs or get me to work. With a bottom line of $14,500 out the door the Yaris was a bit more than I really could afford but I could not afford not to do it. Electric windows and all that would have been nice too but unaffordable. Besides, the car is lighter w/out all that luxury junk! I am losing weight by eating more rice and ramen noodles and I have more time for gardening without cable TV. But I also won’t need that new 52” LCD anymore. :(

So what made me buy a fuel efficient straight gas job over a hybrid? My budget. True, the cost/benefit of a hybrid over the Yaris would save me in the long run, but I need to be able to make the payments until that payback time comes around. So the Yaris will get me into a 10 year plan at which time some other alternative energy vehicle will be available. Or the home conversion kits will be affordable enough for me to convert to electric or the 1.3 liter engine will be available in the US for me to drop in.

I view the Prius as the luxury hybrid, as the new Honda Insight is coming out and the base model is under $20k. If we all bought cars purely on economics we'd all be driving around Toyota Yarises and complaining about them not offering a smaller cheaper engine. When you buy a car from an environmental standpoint you have to think about it's lifetime effect. I think most people see a car as a 5+ year investment, which is why you have to think about what the cost of gas will be in 5 years.

Woody

I can not agree with you more.. I could afford hybrid so that is what I went for. I also needed a car that was urber reliable. If I felt that my 1990 300 e with 285,000 was still going to be that car I would have kept it, by the way I put 210,000 of those miles in 6.5 years. If I could only afford a non-hybrid, like you I would have still gone with the best mpg's I could afford. Yaris is a great choice.

Brian

Hello all

I've been trolling for a very long time. I have a 2007 HCHII and love it. The whole idea is to use the as little oil as you can. I went from 1990 300e at 20mpgs using premium on a good day, to 47 on any given day. I was going to be buying a new car and getting a loan. I had a price I was willing to pay for any car. I decided that it was better to get a high mpg car for x, then a lower mpg for the same x amount. By the way the money I saved on the gas at the higher amount this last year alone paid for the extra amount I paid for the Hybrid-ness of my purchase. Between the gas savings and the mileage allowance, the car does not cost me any money other than insurance. It was the best decision I have made on a car purchase. My other car is a 2006 jetta tdi and I feel that it was a great purchase also compared to what the TDI replaced.

Thanks
Brian

welcome, brian. thanks for un-lurking!

Not everything in life comes down to dollars and cents. If it did we'd be a sorry bunch ;)

Even with tax breaks at time of purchase, I doubt we've broke even on our Civic Hybrid, to date, with our relatively low mileage (though it's likely getting close). I don't really care, as long as the premium is not insane:

A better bottom line was not our only reason for getting a hybrid. By far, our prime motivation was enthusiasm and interest in the new technology.

The sun doesn't rise and set on the dollar.

$$ AND CENTS a $23000 Prius still makes sense when compared to a $19000 Matrix-the car it is most comparable to. The payback-ignoring resale,insurance etc- is about 130,000 miles if you assume $2 gas and about 15 mpg difference.

Most folks probably plan to keep their next car for a lot of miles, and most folks probably figure we won't have $2 gas for the next 13 years. I would bet we will have $3 gas with $100 oil in less than 3 years.The folks who drove up the fuel prices know that a good economy can support $125 oil. I suspect that the rapid run up to $145 oil had a lot to do with this recession, but... I don't see any talking heads saying to same,so maybe I'm wrong-who knows?

Charlie

Remember the resale for hybrids under $4/gal gas? That would take a nice big chunk out of the premium.

Woody, you're pretty good with math.

You're saving $4,500 over 5 years with today's gas and $3,600 at $4 gas over a Prius, which is almost a 1/3 the new value of your Yaris.

The resale on 5 year old Prius is now in line with a regular Honda product (~56%); the Yaris might be a bit lower, but same was used below. See ebay's Completed and Buy it Now prices, if you doubt (KBB is not very good).

Woody Wagon vs Pete Mobile

$1.85 Gas (Today)
------------ Price ----- MPG - CPM ---- Fuel/Yr -- Save/Yr----- Premium -- Payback --- 5Yr Fuel -- Resale --Total 5 Yr
Prius II....$23,500..... 57.4... $0.03.....$483............................................................ $2,417 ... $13,043...$12,875
Yaris.......$14,500..... 43.7 .. $0.04.....$685....... ($152)........$(9,000)........ 59.4........ $3,175 ..... $8,048.... $8,328

$4.00 Gas
------------ Price ----- MPG - CPM ---- Fuel/Yr -- Save/Yr----- Premium -- Payback --- 5Yr Fuel -- Resale --Total 5 Yr
Prius II....$23,500..... 57.4 .. $0.07.....$1,045.......................................................... $5,226 ... $13,043...$15,684
Yaris.......$14,500...... 43.7 .. $0.09.....$1,373..... ($328)........$(9,000)........ 27.5....... $6,865 ..... $8,048...$12,017

Certainly, they are different class vehicles - the 'premium' above is a 'class' + hybrid premium, but if you're comparing basic transportation under tight financial conditions, there is a tough reality here.

RLC has it right, hybrid is really a luxury of sorts.

- Charlie

Unfortunately, hybrids are like solar panels on houses. Their payback is so far down the line towards the life expectancy of the car, it's a gamble whether you'll ever see that payback. When we bought my wife's car last summer, when gas was nearly $4/gallon, I figured we could drive her Elantra for 12 years just on the price difference between a new Prius and the used Elantra. If we needed to buy new HV batteries in a dozen years, we could drive the Elantra another 5 years. All that before the Prius' better mileage even started to make up the difference. Right now, with gas under $2/gallon, a hybrid's payback is 20 years down the road, before considering battery replacement, and how many of us are driving 20 year old cars?

Woody, you're pretty good with math.

You're saving $4,500 over 5 years with today's gas and $3,600 at $4 gas over a Prius, which is almost a 1/3 the new value of your Yaris.

The resale on 5 year old Prius is now in line with a regular Honda product (~56%); the Yaris might be a bit lower, but same was used below. See ebay's Completed and Buy it Now prices, if you doubt (KBB is not very good).

Woody Wagon vs Pete Mobile

$1.85 Gas (Today)
------------ Price ----- MPG - CPM ---- Fuel/Yr -- Save/Yr----- Premium -- Payback --- 5Yr Fuel -- Resale --Total 5 Yr
Prius II....$23,500..... 57.4... $0.03.....$483............................................................ $2,417 ... $13,043...$12,875
Yaris.......$14,500..... 43.7 .. $0.04.....$685....... ($152)........$(9,000)........ 59.4........ $3,175 ..... $8,048.... $8,328

$4.00 Gas
------------ Price ----- MPG - CPM ---- Fuel/Yr -- Save/Yr----- Premium -- Payback --- 5Yr Fuel -- Resale --Total 5 Yr
Prius II....$23,500..... 57.4 .. $0.07.....$1,045.......................................................... $5,226 ... $13,043...$15,684
Yaris.......$14,500...... 43.7 .. $0.09.....$1,373..... ($328)........$(9,000)........ 27.5....... $6,865 ..... $8,048...$12,017

Certainly, they are different class vehicles - the 'premium' above is a 'class' + hybrid premium, but if you're comparing basic transportation under tight financial conditions, there is a tough reality here.

RLC has it right, hybrid is really a luxury of sorts.

- Charlie

The key here is the Cost Per Mile (CPM) comparison; note that there is very little difference between the car at 44 mpg vs. 57 mpg. Even with a 13 MPG difference (basically, the equivalent of a Hummer or full-size SUV!), you still only save a penny per mile with the hybrid. That's because the curve for cost savings decreases exponentially with increasing MPG.

I'm not able to post a chart here, but if you use Excel and make a columns of ascending MPG figures in one column, and the formula of gas price divided by MPG in the second column, with price as constant (use $4 per gallon), and then plot the curve, you'll see this.

The guy who went from a 190E at 20 MPG to a an HCH-II at 47 MPG made out like a bandit, because the CPM took such a big drop. But even if he'd gone from a 190E to, say, a regular Civic or Accord 4 cyl getting 30+ MPG would have noticed a significant savings. I experienced exactly the same going from a 20 MPG Tribute SUV to a 32 MPG Elantra hatchback, cutting my fuel costs by at least 33%, with less frequent stops at the pump.

But after about 30 MPG, the curve seems to flatten out.
So not only does it not seems to make _economic_ sense to buy a hybrid over an already-efficient car, it also doesn't make sense to settle for a skimpy subcompact with less comfort and convenience features, just for a few more MPG.

... Right now, with gas under $2/gallon, a hybrid's payback is 20 years down the road, before considering battery replacement, and how many of us are driving 20 year old cars?

Yo, 22+ years. Spouse too, 20 years.

To be fair, mine has never been an only car. If it had, it probably would have been retired at about 15 years. We also share a "new" car of merely 12 years.

The more $2 gas we buy now, the sooner it can get back up to $4 or more. I want to scrap that 22 year old Honda just after the first adopters get their new 2010 hybrids. By meeting California's 2020 fuel economy goals a decade early, I'll do my part to reduce the inevitable upward price pressure on fuel.

Hi Flatty:

___The Yaris and Fit are two of the least TCO based vehicles available. A problem however is they are B-Class sized Subs vs. D-Class sized Mid-sized Prius-II. As the American consumer speaks with his or her wallet, together Yaris and Fit do not reach the sales of the Prius.

___If you want to also compare, you laid out a Yaris at 43 mpg which is a 37 mpgUS combined vehicle on the 07 and prior EPA and a 32 mpgUS on the 08. And the Prius only 57 whereas it is worth 55 mpgUS on the 07 and prior EPA and 46 on the current.

___Another item you left out is a used Prius-II at $4.00 per or more gas is worth more than $13K with 75,000 on it. The Yaris is not worth anywhere near $8K with 75K miles as you can pick them up right now for under $11K brand new.

___Which would you rather drive for 75,000 miles? A Yaris, Fit or Prius knowing thee TCO will be ~ equal on the back end?

___And then a battery replacement? Who keeps bringing this up? There is many Prius’ over 150K and nobody is replacing battery packs on the Gen-II’s.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Real life comparison numbers are still large.

My wife refuses to drive the Prius "like a hybrid." She starts it and lets it warm if it's cold and starts it and lets it cool in the summer. That's the same way she drove the Toyota Solara and Nissan Maxima before the Prius. In the Prius, she averages 40 mpg in the winter and 46 mpg in the summer. In the Solara and Maxima before, the numbers were 16.5 mpg in the winter and 22 mpg in the summer. We are effectively saving about 50% of her driving dollars. As part of her job, she gets paid mileage for work related driving. last week she drove 60 miles related to work at which she is reimbursed 55 cents per mile now since gas prices have went down.

Exhaust emmissions: compare those with a hybrid.

I, like many of us, keep my cars until they die. That means resale value is meaningless to me. Flatty's figures make the Prius-Yaris payback nearly 60 years at current gas prices, and nearly 28 years at $4/gallon gas. That's well beyond the average lifetime of either car. Bottom line: hybrids still don't make purely economic sense.

ok 2 things 1 is it truly about just saving money, what about conserving gas, i think its at least a little selfish to use more gas than you have to just because you can and what about the environment people who are driving suvs are the ones who should be in hybrids

also people compare these to the wrong cars, toyota didnt make the prius as an alternative to the yaris, its more an alternative to say a camry or another similarly priced car

it just happens that the american market is fubar and there arent any more fuel efficient/economical options
like a diesel yaris (sold in europe), that is realistically an alternative to a yaris, a little more expensive but a lot more fuel efficient, if you keep it long enough it will pay back your money, and if you keep it forever it also might last longer, also resale is higher

people also forget that current gas prices are prices we may never see again, i am willing to bet that in just 1 year prices will go up again significantly and that they and they will fluctuate, coming up little by little each time
do these payoff calculations at the gas prices europeans pay and tell me a hybrid isnt worth it

i understand the point of saving money by not getting a hybrid, however i think there should other options than simply buying more gas

Like others have said/implied-the Yaris just isn't a Prius. The Prius is a decent USA roadtrip vehicle(meaning 500-600 mile per day interstate vehicle).It has a softer ride and is worlds quieter at 68mph. The Yaris and too a lesser extent the Fit, are pretty noisy at 68 mph-their overgearing maybe 3000 RPMs at 68 mph, doesn't help. The Prius turns under 2000 RPMs at 68 mph. The Prius also has less road noise(tire road) and less "air" noise than those two.

Yes, they will win an absolutely cheapest contest, but as Wayne implied we in the USA aren't fond of cars that are that small. The Yaris especially just isn't a great car-cheap, reliable but not comfortable on longish trips and buzzing along at 3000 RPMs doesn't help. They need a regearing and probably more flywheel effect to drop to maybe 2200 RPMs at 68 mph.

Charlie

Okay, I modified Flatty's payback figures to compare a new Prius with a new Hyundai Elantra M5. I made some different assumptions from Flatty, so I'll explain them. I simply used MSRP for both cars, assuming that what you'll gain by haggling gets taken away by transportation and taxes. I used 136% of EPA combined mileage, as I recall that's where expert hypermilers stand with 2008-9 EPA estimates.

$1.85 Gas (Today)
------------ Price ----- MPG - CPM ---- Fuel/Yr -- Save/Yr----- Premium -- Payback
Prius II....$21,620..... 63.2... $0.03.....$439..........................................................
Elantra....$17,009..... 38.8 .. $0.05.....$715....... ($276)........$(4,611)........ 16.7

$4.00 Gas
------------ Price ----- MPG - CPM ---- Fuel/Yr -- Save/Yr----- Premium -- Payback
Prius II....$21,620..... 63.2 .. $0.06.......$949.....................................................
Elantra....$17,009..... 38.8 .. $0.10.....$1,546..... ($597)........$(4,611)......... 7.7

The payback is still near the average lifetime of a car, which is 160,000 miles in the USA - about 10 years.

again im not sure an elantra is the same as a prius, i think its more in the mid sized sedan range, but thats my thinking
you also have to consider that its way easy to get great milage with prius, any non hybrid you have to work a lot harder

Okay, I modified Flatty's payback figures to compare a new Prius with a new Hyundai Elantra M5. ...
The payback is still near the average lifetime of a car, which is 160,000 miles in the USA - about 10 years.

Throw in my household's average car life, and the state's sales tax exemption on hi-MPG cars (9.3%), and the Prius-II wins for any gas price above $1.52. Considering that our gas prices bottomed at $1.75 for a single day, and are already north of $2, this sounds like "case closed," at least for my area.

I'll be very surprised if fuel prices average under $3 over the expected life of my next car.

Throw in my household's average car life, and the state's sales tax exemption on hi-MPG cars (9.3%), and the Prius-II wins for any gas price above $1.52. Considering that our gas prices bottomed at $1.75 for a single day, and are already north of $2, this sounds like "case closed," at least for my area.

I'll be very surprised if fuel prices average under $3 over the expected life of my next car.

i agree completely, a hybrid isnt that much more expensive and gas will only go up and they are a lot more efficient

Guys many are looking short term here. Look at any historical gasoline price chart between 2000 and 2009. Between 2003 and last summer there was a constant rise in prices until the big spike. I paid $2.65 a gallon for 89 gas a week before Katrina hit the gulf coast. That was back in 2005.

Most of the oil producing countries are pumping oil either at cost or losing money right now. It isn't going to be long before many will keep it in the ground to get the prices up.

Mexico is in big trouble because their major fields are being depleted and production is dropping at 5% year over year. In less than ten years Mexico will go from a oil exporter to a oil importer. North sea oil fields and the Russian oil fields are all experiencing the same problem. Even with a global recession the rise in oil prices enviable.

BHO said he wanted prices to rise, he just didn't want them to rise this fast.

Well kiddies get ready, because he and his party are putting our coast line off limits to drilling. You think in eighteen to twenty four months we will not see three dollar gas again?
There are going to be major fuel tax increases to pay for infrastructure construction.
Both Obama and the Democratic controlled Congress and Senate have said they want higher gas taxes. I'm figuring in four years the federal gas tax will be raised by eighty two to a dollar seven cents per gallon over the eighteen cents federal gas tax we pay now.

Even a year ago I thought I would never own a Hybrid. Well after spending enough time on financial boards I'm looking at cutting as much cost out of my life. A paid for forty five mile per gallon Hybrid makes the most sense. You need to look around and look for every nickel an dime in savings in your life. The next few years are going to really going to suck.

The key here is the Cost Per Mile (CPM) comparison; note that there is very little difference between the car at 44 mpg vs. 57 mpg. Even with a 13 MPG difference (basically, the equivalent of a Hummer or full-size SUV!), you still only save a penny per mile with the hybrid. That's because the curve for cost savings decreases exponentially with increasing MPG.

I'm not able to post a chart here, but if you use Excel and make a columns of ascending MPG figures in one column, and the formula of gas price divided by MPG in the second column, with price as constant (use $4 per gallon), and then plot the curve, you'll see this.

The guy who went from a 190E at 20 MPG to a an HCH-II at 47 MPG made out like a bandit, because the CPM took such a big drop. But even if he'd gone from a 190E to, say, a regular Civic or Accord 4 cyl getting 30+ MPG would have noticed a significant savings. I experienced exactly the same going from a 20 MPG Tribute SUV to a 32 MPG Elantra hatchback, cutting my fuel costs by at least 33%, with less frequent stops at the pump.

But after about 30 MPG, the curve seems to flatten out.
So not only does it not seems to make _economic_ sense to buy a hybrid over an already-efficient car, it also doesn't make sense to settle for a skimpy subcompact with less comfort and convenience features, just for a few more MPG.

That's the reality. With $4 gasoline:

MPG - Gas/Yr ------ +10MPG Saving
10..... $6,000
15..... $4,000.....33% ..... $2,000
25..... $2,400 ....40% ..... $1,600
35..... $1,714 ....29% ..... $686
45..... $1,333 ....22% ..... $381
55..... $1,091 ....18% ..... $242
65..... $923 .......15% ..... $168
75..... $800 .......13% ..... $123
85..... $706 ...... 12% ..... $94
95..... $632 ...... 11% ..... $74

There is a crossing point on the MPG curve, beyond which you have diminishing returns. I made a similar comment last summer and it was then around 35 mpg with $4 gas.

The point I was making then was that there is an inverse relationshipt to R&D and production costs that had to be considered against the now small increments in performance (diminishing returns). Basically, economy and efficiency are more than measuring the teaspoons of gasoline you burn. You make great strides to 35mpg with emissions and total annual fuel consumption; but the advantage of adding 5 or 10 mpg past that deminishes.

Toyota did not make unit profit on the Prius until gen II came out and it may only now be breaking even on the whole program over 10 years later (don't know for sure, but guessing it's about now). That's a lot of resources and costs to absorb that's packed into the new technology - manifested by the hybrid premium.

Not saying that we shouldn't pursue hybrid technology, but there are cost to it that are often ignored in a curious collective amnesia or defensiveness.

Woody's Yaris MPG was compared with PDK's Prius figures because I wanted to know if he is a smart guy for buying what he could afford versus what he wanted (a Prius). Woody figured out the numbers and he's a smart guy. Of course, the Yaris is not in the same class, as I stated (but admit it, it looks more fun to drive.) Even with Yaris retaining 35% value (conservative) in 5 yrs and the Prius ~56% (actual), it still comes out ahead $2300 (@$1.85/gas) and $1400 (@$4/gas). All speculation, but reasonable, with a lot of fudge left.

The numbers come out showing Woody is pretty smart. Because of that, he'll soon make a big salary and be able to afford the Prius he really wants and then begin saving money. :eyebrow:

Very interesting discussion and analyses. Regardless of market economic condition or gas price, I think if one is not in market for a car, then mpg, gas price, hybrid/no hybrid is a moot point. And during hard economic times, those who would normally be in a market for a car will probably do one of 2 things: hold out longer with current vehicle, or buy based on affordability factors. This assumes the non-affluent, mass behavior, and excludes the rich who can afford anything, any time.

I guess what I'm getting at is our analyses should consider the fact that bad economic condition (jobs/income, consumer confidence, etc.), uncontrolled gas prices (either up or down), and a consumer's shortsightedness, car manufacturers will have a heck of a time promoting clean cars.

Hi All,

I am very supprised that even here on Cleanmpg, there is no standard and expected maintenance in these cost analysis. When is the last time a Yaris did 125K miles without a brake repairs? In metro area driving, its pretty standard to expect 40 K miles per set of front disk brakes, and 100 K miles for a set of rear drum brakes. And you also have to figure in the standard car starter battery - 60 K miles max. Let alone starters and alternators.

When I did my original cost analysis I estimated maintenance item lifetimes, and then made a per 1 K mile cost of each service item. Including the Prius hybrid battery. For example - the Prius battery costs per 1 K miles are figured: $3000 (dealer repair) / 125K miles is $24/ 1 K miles. A transmission rebuild on a standard car is going to be about $3500 (Aamco - dealer probably more) / 100 K is $35/ 1K miles. Total brakes on a Prius in 125 K miles $0. On a Yaris - Fronts (twice turn rotors $800) , Fronts (replace rotors $500), F, rears ($300) total $1600/125K - $12.8 per 1K miles. Etc.

The Prius will probably cost more, hell, its a bigger car and quicker but these bogus 60 year cost recoveries estimates are simply clueless. High shool accounting just does not add-up in the real world.

that´s a little harsh, but again you cant compare the two, they are different
and costs can also be offset somewhat by doing a lot of the work yourself, which i imagine many hypermilers do

What many are not figuring is expected life of the vehicle. Sure a Yaris is cheap but is it still going to be on the road at 200K miles? I have found most economy cars are pretty abused by lack of proper maintenance. That also goes for leased vehicles.

I own Volvo's because I know I will easily get 250K miles out of the cars. Many on this board own Honda's for the exact same reason.

When you buy a cheap car that is what you are buying a cheap car. If all you can afford is a $12K car then pick a good used car that is two or three years old. It will last a lot longer with proper maintenance than a cheap $10K-$12K new car.

One man's predictions and expectations are another man's hypotheticals. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to find Toyota reliability beats Volvo reliability, contrary to ALS' perception. Consumer Reports just moved Volvo up to average reliability, and moved Toyota's Camry down to average.

Since I DWB, I don't expect I'm typical, but I've got 77,000 miles on the original disk brake pads on my car, and I don't expect to change them until well after 90,000 miles. I'm still using my car's original battery, too. So theoretical maintenance costs are just that - theoretical.

Dealing with real costs, hybrids are an iffy gamble. The straw that breaks the Camel's back for me is the fact that you can't get a hybrid with MT. I still like having more control over my driving.

Sorry, I didn't realize that the Prius needs no repairs other than battery replacement. Didn't know that it doesn't have all of the same wear components that the Yaris does.

$5-$6000 is a big number, donee, based on the difference in technologies. We're not trying not count pennies between hypothetical repairs between models.

donee,
Most ignore maintenance for two reasons. It is tough to predict especially on the Prius(which has a longer warranty in most states than the Yaris). We are guessing that the maintenance costs will be close.

Another point-folks who do heavy P&G can go a very, very long time on brakes. I rarely use much brake on the Suburban or the Prius.Like you point out brake jobs are not cheap,and most folks with ATs need one every 50,000-60,000 miles. It will be less frequent for a Hypermiler.

Like MateriaPanama says many of us do almost all our own work.I recently changed the shocks, radiator, belt tensioner, brake booster, and water pump on my 208,000 mile Chevy. It was $600 for the parts plus my labor.It might have been $2000 at a GM dealer.

Charlie

Let me be more specific on my comment. One I would not expect a $10K Yaris to last and be as problem free as a $20K Camry or $25K Prius. As far as Volvo's go, their quality went down hill after Ford bought them out. The ones I own are my last Volvo's the newer ones have quality issues.

Sentra, my battery in the Elantra lasted over 90K miles. I still have original brakes all the way around (no brake jobs yet), and the original starter. The car is 400mi from the 100K mark. ;)

As for manual transmissions, I definitely know what you mean but Honda is the only one who makes a hybrid drivetrain that can even possibly use a manual transmission. They used one in the Civic up through the '05 MY, and the original Insight up until production was stopped in '06. The problem they kept seeing was massively greater incidences of battery failure (as compared to the CVT equipped versions) -- people were lugging the engine because of tall gearing and relying upon the assist mechanism to keep the car moving and the engine running. This resulted in frequent and very deep battery discharges. The CVT would simply change ratios to provide the needed torque without impacting the battery as badly.

I have a switch in my car (self installed) that prevents use of the battery at all so that I can avoid discharging it unnecessarily. The less I use it, the longer it will last. ;) Unfortunately, there is no known analog for the manual transmission HCH, but both are excellent performers when driven with a light touch.

While I will regret losing the control afforded by the manual transmission, there is very much to be said for a well executed CVT (or eCVT as used in the Toyota and Ford hybrids) and after having driven them, there isn't as much loss of control as you might imagine... especially with the additional hybrid flexibility allowing you to "FAS" without ever touching the ignition. I could live with a Prius or FFH. :)

What many are not figuring is expected life of the vehicle. Sure a Yaris is cheap but is it still going to be on the road at 200K miles? I have found most economy cars are pretty abused by lack of proper maintenance. That also goes for leased vehicles.

I own Volvo's because I know I will easily get 250K miles out of the cars. Many on this board own Honda's for the exact same reason.

When you buy a cheap car that is what you are buying a cheap car. If all you can afford is a $12K car then pick a good used car that is two or three years old. It will last a lot longer with proper maintenance than a cheap $10K-$12K new car.

did you just say that a ford (volvo) is more reliable than a toyota?

toyota is the undisputed king of reliability, this extends to their smaller cars, ask anyone
toyota is known more than any other company for its reliablity, they are truly bulletproof

and i think you are very mistaken, the yaris is cheap because it is small and clever, what advantage does a bigger car have over it?

nevermind about my ford comment, i just read your other post, i was just so shocked to hear that statement that i had to respond immedeately
no one is more reliable than toyota though, and price doesnt matter, toyota simply does not risk their reputation on any car that might have reliability issues, which is more than i can say for the american automobile companies, sure their big cars are pretty good
but their small cars are um of unproven quality
and toyota built themselves up to being the biggest car manufacturer with small cars not big ones so they know a thing or to about them

any one at this forum ever own a small toyota that was amazingly reliable? im sure lots of you have

One man's predictions and expectations are another man's hypotheticals. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to find Toyota reliability beats Volvo reliability, contrary to ALS' perception. Consumer Reports just moved Volvo up to average reliability, and moved Toyota's Camry down to average.

Since I DWB, I don't expect I'm typical, but I've got 77,000 miles on the original disk brake pads on my car, and I don't expect to change them until well after 90,000 miles. I'm still using my car's original battery, too. So theoretical maintenance costs are just that - theoretical.

Dealing with real costs, hybrids are an iffy gamble. The straw that breaks the Camel's back for me is the fact that you can't get a hybrid with MT. I still like having more control over my driving.


Hi Sentra,,

Everything is biased by conditions and operating. So, in the Prius you would get 175K miles on the original disk brakes. The relative comparison still stands. Some people (my brother when he was 25 years old) only get 25K miles on front wheel drive brakes in metro area driving.

If you do not budget for maintenance, you will end up like one of these SUV people driving bald tires in the winter (snow storm in the midwest, heavy rain in California costal areas). Its a must, and there is nothing theoretical about parts having a service life. All vehicles have service schedules based on expectateions of various parts service lifes. Not budgeting for maintenance is the most common mistake a first-time car buyer will make.

The Prius transmission is actually mechanically simpler than a MT. Check it out. In comparison to a AT, the Prius transmission uses about 1/3 the parts. You control the Prius transmission by how far off the point of accelleration you lift the pedal. People get used to it (DAN , XCEL, BESMAPMAN, etc). The computer automatically keeps the engine/transmission ratio at the best BSFC. All you need to be sure of that, is to keep RPM in the olive drab to orange (on my Mycanscan, at least - orange is 2000 RPM).

The MT is more efficient, power in to power out. But in a car system, its worse MPG's because it does not have the ratio range best suited for the engine at the speed range of cars. That may change with these DSG 6 and 7 speed transmissions.

The real determiner on if one gets a Prius or not with gas above $4/ga for best TCO economy, is the daily one-way trip range. If its over about 15 miles, go for it. 10 to 15 mi you need to have a garage to run a engine block heater, or live in a hot climate state. Under 10 mass transit or a cheap car might be better. And this is because of the funky anti-polution warm-up techniques programmed into it.

Toyota. Hmmm. I get 200,000 miles out of whatever I've owned. IMO there are just a few models/engines/trans to avoid no matter the make, including Toyota. Toyota's got their V-6 oil sludgers of 00-02. My 04 Highlander has interior hardware problems: the power mirror buttons keep sinking into the dash and the heater temperature control ceased working. Turns out the temp control dial issue is worthy of a number of internet threads, making it a quality control issue. $700-1000 repair at the dealer, but fortunately I was able to repair it on my own with a soldering iron (thank you internet!). My friend's son just fried his 02 Prizm (corolla) engine with 62,000 miles. Turns out the little 4's have a rep for burning oil according to his mechanic. Shame on the kid for not checking it while travelling but still...

I'm not saying that Toyota makes junk. I just don't think they are worthy of such elevated status. GM gets dinged not because they are a bad brand, but they pushed out some monumentally rotten models (Vega, 80's diesel, etc).

Keith

well while the prizm may be the same as a corolla, its noteworthy that your example of a broken toyota actually wears a chevy (geo) badge

and toyota is worthy of theri status, as a whole, they are way more reliable than any other car make, and you cant just throw a few examples and say, look they are just as unreliable as anyone else, thats flawed logic

and i will grant that there have been a few problems, especially recently with a few recalls, but overall they are a ahead of the others, and thousands upon thousands of happy toyota owners will back me up on this

also
toyota makes the landcruiser (not the crappy american gasoline version, the awesome everywhere else diesel)
that truck could represent reliability, i mean the UN buys thousands of them for their dangerous missions, just because of this
if aliens landed and said give us your most reliable production vehicle and if it doesn't break down we wont destroy you, hopefully we would give them a landcruiser

also i dont think its gm that gets dinged, i think ford is the one with the worst reliability reputation for any non English car

For me the economics are easier:
$1 given to a car company who is trying to make better more fuel efficient cars (and entities further down that chain) is just worth more (to me) than $1 given to an oil company (and entities further down that chain).

One seems (to me) to be trying to be part of the solution, the other seems (to me) to be trying to be part of so many problems...

It's overly simplistic, but:
"I'd gladly spend $2 to keep $1 from going to Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela/etc..."

I don't want a used car. Been there, done that. And I tried the Yaris, and it ain't for me.

I think every car should have a hybrid option. I settled on the Altima Hybrid. It's not perfect, but it's basically what I wanted, and got good mileage (for a car that size/power).

My Toyota's have been no more or less reliable than any other cars I've owned. They're good cars, demand higher prices, and are bought by people that probably take better care of them. I'm not sure why different badging on the same car is noteworthy. Corolla's had the same problem. My sample size may be small- 18 cars of my own. The Highlander is the only one that has had hardware problems before 80,000 miles, under 5 years old. Actually, I've never been under the 150,000 mile range before having hardware or mechanical failure problems. I just have my personal experience, and if that's flawed logic, I can live with that. And Ford (as well as GM...Chrysler too) probably would like to erase the late 70's-early 80's altogether.

Keith

Sorry to steer off topic.
Put me in the "it doesn't make personal economic sense, but there are other compelling reasons to spend more to use less" camp.
And thank you to those that won't buy used, allowing me continued purchase opportunities. There are values important to you that I just don't seem to have.

Keith

I'm not sure why different badging on the same car is noteworthy. Corolla's had the same problem.
Keith

right it really doesnt, but i just thought it was interesting that a gm had been used to prove that toyota was unreliable, not to lessen their point, i was just appreciating the irony, you see i like to note irony

I can appreciate those that are saying the hybrid was the way I should have gone. Use less gas, better for the environment, cushier ride… What it boiled down to was affordability. I needed a new vehicle, or any reliable vehicle actually but was shooting for new. The last 2 cars I had were bought used and my luck wasn’t very good with them. My budget was for $xxx/month or out the door cost of under $15,000 including the first 6 month insurance payment. With canceling some of life’s luxuries and tightening the old belt I could up that by a little more. But the more I upped it the less of a buffer there is if an unexpected expense comes up. That was the bottom line and no amount of ‘well, after 160,000 miles the hybrid saves more money’ was going to change that. BTW, we had no hybrid buying incentives that I know of in NC to help me make a decision.

With gas at $4.00/gallon I needed a cost effective, fuel efficient commuter vehicle. Not much in the way of choice in new vehicles (available in the US) within my budget back in July 08. We had the Aveo and the Yaris with the Smart running a little more but still in the running. By using the internet for research, the Aveo wasn’t living up to its mileage claims and seemed it would be hard to get over 40 mpg. With the Yaris folks were reporting over 40 mpg and most were getting over the 36 highway estimate. The smart was getting about Yaris mileage using premium gas.

All things considered (I can list the reasons if folks are interested) I went with the Yaris. Yeah, I probably ‘suffer’ a little over a luxury vehicle’s ride but I don’t notice as I do not know the difference between them. I never even test drove one before buying, never drove a Prius either. To me it is just a car: transportation, mobility, work/home/store, nothing more. I have the styling, beat-up old Cherokee for fishing! I took all the variables into consideration and got the best deal on cost efficient transportation I could. Never looked back either.

I’m not trying to sound defensive here, just letting folks know that there are those of us that do not have the hybrid choice as an option regardless of payback in the future. For a $40,000 Volt, the payments would be more than my mortgage! Bottom line is I’ve been happy as a clam at high tide with the Yaris. Rides great, fun to drive, within my affordability range, over 40 mpg consistently, and it’s bright red! No, the pretty girls haven’t been crawling all over me for a ride but I had to make a sacrifice somewhere. The Cherokee doesn’t attract them either but gives them a good laugh as I drive by. :o

For me its simply saving me money at the pump.
I drive in excess of 40,000 per year and the most economical vehicle is what I need.
The price difference of the HCH II over the base civic didn't even enter in.

I got into an 06 aveo almost 3 years ago. Mind you, I was only 19 and needed a car desperately. So I didn't really do much research (and wish I had). However, I've maintained the car very well. With oil services every 3,000 miles, and I just got new brakes last week at almost 60,000 miles. I've been checking to see my mileage a lot lately, and I get about 27 in town, 37 highway. Which is pretty good because that beats the EPA estimates.

But... I'm still getting a hybrid in April to cut down on fuel costs (I put about 18,000 miles on my car a year) and for other reasons too. I definitely think its worth it.