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I found an interesting article to share on MSN Money that starts off with "What if gas cost $10 a gallon? Forget pizza delivery. And cheap airfares. And bottled water. In fact, forget a way of life that looks much like today's. But would that be so bad?"
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveonaCar/WhatIfGasCost10DollarsAGallon.aspx
This may not happen soon, but is a certainty not far down the road. I think that this article presents an accurate vision into the future. The only criticism I have is that it doesn't mention my expectation that hypermiling (mild to extreme) will prevail among the majority of drivers who cannot commute via public transportation. -Ed.

A couple of years ago, a number of GreenHybrid members were screaming at me they did not care if it got to $10 a gallon...must be nice to have bullet-proof jobs - or is it?

They probably still think I'm an idiot.

A couple of years ago, a number of GreenHybrid members were screaming at me they did not care if it got to $10 a gallon...must be nice to have bullet-proof jobs - or is it?

They probably still think I'm an idiot.

I agree Delta Flyer... considering the wide majority of Americans work in service industries or in some fashion for the government...I'd say very few of us have completely depression-proof jobs. While many people claim they would like a return to simpler times, I have a feeling when they do arrive only the most hardcore survivalist will not complain.

Most people can live without Starbucks... but what if we are inevitably talking about no bread on the store shelves?

Delta just because I frequent GH doesn't mean I think your an idiot.

If anything with fuel going up maybe A. Our government will finally seriously push for alternative fuels B. People will purchase more fuel efficient vehicles C. People will finally start to drive responsibly.

coolshock1,

I said "a number of..." - not "everybody at GH".

Just pointing not only are there a number of people there dismissive of fuel economy, but they attack people that take it seriously with blessings of their staff.

Coolshock, I expect all of your three scenarios to play out by $10/gal. Especially, "People will finally start to drive responsibly", like actually driving below the speed limits and avoiding jackrabbit starts/stops ...gee kinda like some of the basics of hypermiling!

If gasoline was $10/gallon, who cares. If diesel is at $10/gallon, which it will be the first to reach that mark, my wiskey and pizza and beer prices are going sky high. My employer doesnt care if i can get to work cheaply. My employer cares if everyone is paying $7 for a loaf of bread and not having money to buy their crap. Most people spend way more on food, necessities, entertainment than on transport fuels such as gasoline. Diesel price hinders the economy way more than gasoline. The only thing $10/gallon gasoline is going to cause is complaining, rioting, social uneasyness from the people who cant afford it. But at this point, $10 is only 2.5 times more than you pay today. For middle america we are just going to bitch and complain and carry on.

(if you get the american car average of 27mpg and you drive to your american job average of $17.xx/hr job, and you drive the 30 miles a day average an american drives, you are going to pay an extra $6-7 a day to make $140. Probably going to keep on driving, probably going to keep on buying what you buy, probably not going to slow the economy down to the point you lose your job.......this is the average american scenario).

Probably the first industry to really get hurt is the airlines.
If the trend continues we'll be driving, not flying coast to coast. Imagine what that would do the the business class customers who have deadlines to meet.

Last time we went to Asia was 24 hrs by flight. It may become 1-2 weeks by ship.

-Steve

Do you guys\gals think the trucking industry will look more to shipping via rail? I live a 15 to 20 minute drive from one of the main thoroughfares in the US for the rail industry.

Some folks are talking 12 to 15 a gallon..

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080521145247.aspx

I don't get it. Why do you kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?
Once these oil people crank the price up so high it kills off all the jobs (and ability to buy food etc) putting the world in a giant depression, who's going to buy their oil?

When I'm roasting rabbit-on-a-stick over a wood fire, why would I need oil?? :Banane36:

If that ever happened, I guess the only driving I'd do is to work/school and that's about it.

I'd also express my extreme displeasure with the driving habits of everyone I know.

We'd pay an appropriate price for the negative externalities at $10

The shipping industry should probably start learning how to sail by wind again...:p

We'd pay an appropriate price for the negative externalities at $10

But that price wouldn't reduce any of the negative externalities.

Depends. If its $10 gradually over 5+ years, not much. FE Cars will gradually do better.

If its $10 within 6 months, then we have a problem.

Depends. If its $10 gradually over 5+ years, not much. FE Cars will gradually do better.

If its $10 within 6 months, then we have a problem.

I don't think the FE of tractor-trailers, agricultural/mining/construction equipment, airplanes, ships will appreciably increase in the next 5 years... :(

The latest predicitions have us have way there by the end of summer :eek:

... but what if we are inevitably talking about no bread on the store shelves?

Being as this is my job, delivering bread, it definitely worries me. :(

Being as this is my job, delivering bread, it definitely worries me. :(


You never can tell what's going to happen. Maybe next year all the anti-nuke people will move to France (where people like having electricity),
so Amercia can start building new power plants.
As we all know, nuclear power plants can help us cut down the amount of oil we use.

Since it takes 20 years to build a plant (with all the inspections etc), it's not going to be quick and painless.
However, Amercia has a big pantload of coal to burn to keep the grid going.

People in the NE actually used coal to heat their homes not so long ago, so it wouldn't
be a real big deal to start doing it again. (Coal can transported by train IIRC). :)
If the NE stopped using oil for power plants and home heating, that would cut
our petroleum usage way down.

Heck, my home heating system could be switched from oil to coal in about 5 seconds.

There are nearly 20 new plant applications...

And on the topic, my 70 mile per day commute would cost 11 dollars, which is what a lot of other people are paying now to drive much less than that in their enormous truck/suvs, plus, my company would likely get a lot more business (increasing the demand for engineers and therefore raising my salary) as the power/utility sector would look into more upgrades to accommodates the demand for EV's. So... let's do it..!


You never can tell what's going to happen. Maybe next year all the anti-nuke people will move to France (where people like having electricity),
so Amercia can start building new power plants.
As we all know, nuclear power plants can help us cut down the amount of oil we use.

Since it takes 20 years to build a plant (with all the inspections etc), it's not going to be quick and painless.
However, Amercia has a big pantload of coal to burn to keep the grid going.

People in the NE actually used coal to heat their homes not so long ago, so it wouldn't
be a real big deal to start doing it again. (Coal can transported by train IIRC). :)
If the NE stopped using oil for power plants and home heating, that would cut
our petroleum usage way down.

Heck, my home heating system could be switched from oil to coal in about 5 seconds.

This is interesting..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/22/ccoil122.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox


Good night!

At $10 gas I'd get an 80 mpg scooter, use my HX in bad weather, and bike on weekends for transportation.

And, since food prices are locked into oil prices now,
you will be easily able to carry a $100 worth of food home in your bicycle basket..

I use a Burley Nomad for heavy grocery shopping by bike. It can carry 100 lbs of groceries, and I probably can do 18+ mph at that load too.

Rich, I liked the global prespective of your article. Check out this article from a couple months ago, entitled "$4 gas: Yes, it's on the way" http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/Advice/4DollarGasYesItsOnTheWay.aspx?page=2
The most interesting part: How much people pay for gas in other countries, like $0.41 in Iran (goverment chips in) and $8 in UK (higher taxes). So maybe that's why most Brits drive smaller cars.
When I visited London back in 2000, I was amazed at the large proportion of small cars including the Smart Car, as well as, the high gas price that was at $5 per gal back then.

I use a Burley Nomad for heavy grocery shopping by bike. It can carry 100 lbs of groceries, and I probably can do 18+ mph at that load too.

Since I'm an old retired guy, the most groceries I carry on my bike is two water bottles, two PB&J sandwiches and maybe an apple or two..
I tie the lunch box on the back, next to my tool kit. :)

http://i46.photobucket.com/albums/f147/Xringer/fanny.jpg

Rich, I liked the global prespective of your article. Check out this article from a couple months ago, entitled "$4 gas: Yes, it's on the way" http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/Advice/4DollarGasYesItsOnTheWay.aspx?page=2
The most interesting part: How much people pay for gas in other countries, like $0.41 in Iran (goverment chips in) and $8 in UK (higher taxes). So maybe that's why most Brits drive smaller cars.
When I visited London back in 2000, I was amazed at the large proportion of small cars including the Smart Car, as well as, the high gas price that was at $5 per gal back then.


The part I liked was:
"It may be that America's stubborn driving habits have finally begun to change. The federal Energy Information Administration on Wednesday said gas consumption had fallen 0.7% last week compared with the same week of 2007. Typically, consumption grows 1.5% a year just to keep up with population growth."

I hope this is going to become a trend.. :flag:


As to comparing our gas prices to other countries with (long standing) higher prices,
it's often an invalid comparison in many cases, where they have oil wells all over the place
or the country is so small and/or has such nice weather, that 90% of the population can take other transportation besides cars.

When I got stationed in Bermuda in 1963, I was horrified at the gas prices. On the base, fuel mix for my 2-stroke moped was around $1.00 a gallon IIRC.
(I think it's well over $6 for regular today).

But, when I filled up my 100MPG 50cc bike, with it's 3/4 gallon tank, I decided it wasn't too bad.. :)