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What do you think is going to happen to all the existing cars on the road today and what about people who aren't in a position to replace theirs?

I saw a full size, early-80's custom van being driven down the road, and I got the impression that the guy was trying to conserve every drop of gas he could. He looked very poor and the vehicle was either something he picked up cheap or something he could never afford to upgrade.

So let's take the existing trend, and assume the worse....by the end of 2010, we are paying $10 a gallon. Sure there are some old, cheap high mpg vehicles on the road and in dealer lots, but I suspect many of those will be snapped up pretty quickly. So what will the poor do? And what if things get even worse, and the price of gas isn't high, but litterally out of reach? A sudden drop in production combined with ever increasing demand, could eventually force a transition into another fuel other than gas. That transition might bring prices of oil back down, but then the "gas" stations will start closing up, or at least they won't sell petrol any more. What of the old cheap beater then?

I'm thinking two different solutions...
1. Mass transit. Even if just state provided vehicles to anyone willing to carpool at least 4 to a group. Better would be a true overhaul which would not only reduce out gas depencence, but wear and tear on a hurting infrastucture.
2. Retrofits. Could existing car bodies have PHEV or other components replace their ICE? Could it be done at a price that could be afforded? The cheap end wouldn't be like most cars, but more like the first attempts at PHEV would be....20/40 mile range with modest top speeds and no secondary system (gas, hydrogen, etc).

Anybody have ideas or other visions of the future?

The poor will use bicycles!

What happened in the early 1900's when in just a few short years horses were replaced with automobiles. Some guy just like you was saying what is going to happen to all the poor people who can't afford automobiles. When the livery stables all convert to gas stations, the poor will not be able to feed and shelter their horses.

A rewording of your theme:

So let's take the existing trend, and assume the worse....by the end of 2010, we are paying $10 a gallon. Sure there are some old, cheap high mpg vehicles on the road and in dealer lots, but I suspect many of those will be snapped up pretty quickly. So what will the poor do? And what if things get even worse, and the price of gas isn't high, but litterally out of reach? A sudden drop in production combined with ever increasing demand, could eventually force a transition into another fuel other than gas. That transition might bring prices of oil back down, but then the "gas" stations will start closing up, or at least they won't sell petrol any more. What of the old cheap beater then?



QUOTE Shiba3420 with changes:

So let's take the existing trend, and assume the worse....by the end of 1910(2010), we are paying $10 a bale (gallon). Sure there are some old, cheap horses(high MPG vehicles) on the road and in dealer lots, but I suspect many of those will be snapped up pretty quickly. So what will the poor do? And what if things get even worse, and the price of alfalfa(gas) isn't high, but litterally out of reach? A sudden drop in production combined with ever increasing demand, could eventually force a transition into another feed(fuel) other than alfalfa(gas). That transition might bring prices of hay(oil) back down, but then the liveries("gas" stations") will start closing up, or at least they won't sell alfalfa(petrol) any more. What of the old cheap beater then?


The poor will adjust. It is always hard for them. It is just the way it is. Unfortunate but true.

Local churches and the government will no doubt help those who cannot help themselves. I don't mean this in a harsh way, but I think there is some truth in the statement that the poor are not adept at spotting trends, and aligning themselves to profit (or at least mitigate loss) from them.

The poor will use bicycles!

My company is located in a poor neighborhood and the bike traffic has grown 10 fold this year. I'm not sure what they'll do when winter comes though :confused:

My company is located in a poor neighborhood and the bike traffic has grown 10 fold this year. I'm not sure what they'll do when winter comes though :confused:

Winter = Jackets, Scarfs, Gloves, Hats, Long Underwear, etc. :)

What happened in the early 1900's when in just a few short years horses were replaced with automobiles. Some guy just like you was saying what is going to happen to all the poor people who can't afford automobiles. When the livery stables all convert to gas stations, the poor will not be able to feed and shelter their horses.
.

The two situations don't directly compare. Livery stables provided more then just a place to board your horse. They also provided horse, team, and carriage rentals, and the sale of all horse-related supplies. It would be as if your local gas station provided, in addition to their usual fuel, oil, auto supplies sales; long-term garaging for your vehicle, and car, truck, and trailer rentals. The urban poor usually didn't own their own horses, they rented them from a livery stable for the few occasions where they needed use of a horse. The rural poor owned horses, but were land rich, and could pasture their horses at minimal expense.

When the poor did have to transition to automobiles, there were plenty of older used cars for sale. Since with the rapid advances in automotive technology during the first 20 years of automotive development (standardization of controls, quicker to start, and increasingly convenient to use), the wealthy were buying the latest cars with electric start, accellerator on the floor, automatic spark advance, easier to shift gearing, no-prime starting, etc. So they were trading in their older hand-crank start, accellerator and manual spark advance on the steering column, difficult to shift cars, that required priming of the each cylinder and 10 minutes of prep time and many steps involved to get started. The situation was somewhat comparable to the computer market in the 90's where computer technology was advancing so quickly that you could buy a 5 year old computer for next to nothing, a 1905 car in 1920 was hopelessly obsolete and had a price to match.

Returning back to today, whichever car manufacturer is first to return to the market with a Chevy Metro/Ford Fiesta/Honda CCVC type car, that is an inexpensive, non-hybrid, fuel-frugal car, is going to be able to sell lots of them to those whose finances don't allow them to buy a hybrid or EV.

My company is located in a poor neighborhood and the bike traffic has grown 10 fold this year. I'm not sure what they'll do when winter comes though :confused:

Winter in Chicago is worse. I biked in 17F snow blizzard to Downtown, and was warm enough. But the salt later corroded my bike. But what's really bad is biking in 35F and raining weather! I hate biking in the rain! Stuff gets really dirty!

It will probably take a few years but here is how I envision it:

Gas and diesel will be out of sight, maybe $7.00 a gallon.
Autos will all be made in Mexico, cheap.
Demand for allternative vehicles will be the norm, so prices will drop even further.
Used hybrids will start being traded and sold.
The poor will be able to buy a used hybrid for a lot less pesos.
They will make more money because all the illegal immigrants will go back to Mexico to build cars so there will be lots of jobs for them here, if they are willing to do them.

OK, I'm just naturally optimistic. Can't help it.

Here's a hot one though. My wife and several of her school bus driver friends own horses. The small rural community where she drives is very populated with Amish. So horses are allowed in town. They all asked the bus garage manager if he would put in some hitching posts so they could ride their horses to work. I am dead serious. These gas prices may very well lead to this in rural areas. It costs my wife around $600 to feed her horse for one year. And no insurance to pay.

Winter = Jackets, Scarfs, Gloves, Hats, Long Underwear, etc. :)

Winter in Chicago is worse. I biked in 17F snow blizzard to Downtown, and was warm enough. But the salt later corroded my bike. But what's really bad is biking in 35F and raining weather! I hate biking in the rain! Stuff gets really dirty!

Most of their bike tires are already bald and their outerwear comes from the "Unique thrift shop", which is a much tougher way to go than my new michelin bike tires and Gore-tex outerwear. (Although even I'm not doing that in 17F and a blizzard)

Our bus system has bike racks on the front, so hopefully they won't have too far to go once they reach their stop. But even then, the bus fares are going to need to go up if fuel continues to rise. I think I'll start a campaign with my coworkers to ride the bus more often to help "prop up" the system and help with our ozone action days as well. I don't see another way to help at this point. :(

Maybe by then people will find a way to help the less fortunate to make the switch??

--des

I truly hope that communities band together through this economic tough time and help one another. Imagine people helping people, growing food in their gardens and sharing surplus with their neighbors. Sort of like folks did 100 years ago.

Victory Gardens Rule!