Can We Expect An Oil Price Spike In November? --- or worse?

Discussion in 'Fuel' started by Carcus, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    From the article:

    ...."Iran is beginning to exhibit the external features of extreme societal disruption in a way that we haven't seen in the last forty years. The last time there was this much civil unrest in this country, it was called "The Revolution."

    ............."In summary

    I think the stage is set for an explosive confrontation between the two military super powers if Iran becomes aggressive towards the shipping going through the Gulf. I believe that Iran will move militarily to punish the world for acquiescing to American sanctions, as a face-saving gesture.

    If the U.S. responds militarily, as we almost surely will, or the sanctions would just fall apart, there exists the potential for Russian and American airmen to face direct conflict.

    A few salient points. Neither Saudi Arabia, Russia, or the U.S. have the capacity to make up the loss of 4.4 mm BOPD from world markets. While all three countries have boosted their production in recent months, there will still be a net deficit on world markets. If the U.S. enforces these sanctions strictly, as we have to assume they would, there will be short fall of over a million BOPD reaching global ports, under the best scenario. I am taking into account that during the last sanction period Iran still manage to sell 3.2 mm BOPD. But, then we have to remember that this U.S. administration is much more likely to enforce them strictly."

    So, regardless of the political situation in Iran, there is going to be shortage of oil soon no matter what, in my view."
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
  2. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    .... and the oil (incl. everything Iran can produce, .. and a whole lot more) has to flow, ... especially when you've got a brand new $26 trillion dollar 'road' that needs debt service

    "Xi first announced the trade initiative also known as the “New Silk Road” in 2013, which needs more than $26 trillion of infrastructure investment by 2030 to keep regional economies expanding. The project includes railways, power plants, ports, highways and other projects across the world, with Beijing providing billions of dollars in credit to drive these schemes."

    Is China’s $26 Trillion New Silk Road A Debt Trap?
  3. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Iran responsible for attack on two tankers: Pompeo
  4. EdwinTheMagnificent

    EdwinTheMagnificent Legend In His Mind

    Way before November , is my guess. The world is going to hell faster than we ever expected.
  5. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Wood Mackenzie consultant on why oil markets haven't spiked ....

    Flowers: Global oil demand will peak in 2030s

    Basically, .. not too long ago the oil markets would have spiked on all the bad news (5%ish oil is now off the market plus middle east tensions) , ... but there appears to be (barely?) enough oil on the market to absorb the loss (he seems to be indicating we're about at the limit of bad news for oil supply before the prices do ramp up).

    Also, .. he sees oil demand growth tapering off and becoming flat (peak demand) by 2035 or so.

    /my add, .. 4 of the 5 largest auto manufacturers for the US market have all announced serious electrification plans (imo)
  6. NeilBlanchard

    NeilBlanchard Well-Known Member

    The series of explosions and fire and other problems at the largest refinery on the east coast (in Philadelphia), may affect the price of gas, on the east coast at least?
  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait Well-Known Member

    The required switch to low sulfur marine fuel for shipping next year may also raise prices.
  8. RedylC94

    RedylC94 Well-Known Member

    It just went up ~25¢/gallon here (>200 miles from the east coast).
  9. EdwinTheMagnificent

    EdwinTheMagnificent Legend In His Mind

    Yeah , we're up to around $3.12-ish in my area.
  10. NeilBlanchard

    NeilBlanchard Well-Known Member

    We sold our last ICE car a couple of months ago, so I am not paying any attention to the price of gas.

    We have 3 electric cars, for 4 drivers.
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait Well-Known Member

    Up ten cents since last week here, about an hour north of Philly.
  12. jcp123

    jcp123 Caliente!

    Any excuse to raise prices will be used - look at MTBE on the West Coast. Prices got jacked up to introduce this new, environmentally freindly fuel, and got jacked up again when MTBE was found toxic and had to be removed.

    Fuel prices have taxes, of course, but never think there’s zero link to the sellers...
  13. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    "Iranian leaders have summoned the British ambassador as Tehran fumes over Britain's Thursday seizure of an Iranian tanker believed to be violating the European Union sanctions by providing crude oil to the Syrian regime.

    British Royal Marines supported the authorities in Gibraltar in taking the vessel amid evidence that it was trying to circumvent the EU sanctions on the Syrian regime. A senior Spanish official said the operation was requested by the United States."

    Britain seizes Iranian oil tanker headed to Syria, furious Tehran summons British ambassador over 'destructive' action
  14. EdwinTheMagnificent

    EdwinTheMagnificent Legend In His Mind

    At least we don't get sucked into a war with Iran all by ourselves.

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