Can We Expect An Oil Price Spike In November? --- or worse?

Discussion in 'Fuel' started by Carcus, Sep 2, 2018.

  1. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    From the article:

    ...."Iran is beginning to exhibit the external features of extreme societal disruption in a way that we haven't seen in the last forty years. The last time there was this much civil unrest in this country, it was called "The Revolution."


    ............."In summary

    I think the stage is set for an explosive confrontation between the two military super powers if Iran becomes aggressive towards the shipping going through the Gulf. I believe that Iran will move militarily to punish the world for acquiescing to American sanctions, as a face-saving gesture.

    If the U.S. responds militarily, as we almost surely will, or the sanctions would just fall apart, there exists the potential for Russian and American airmen to face direct conflict.

    A few salient points. Neither Saudi Arabia, Russia, or the U.S. have the capacity to make up the loss of 4.4 mm BOPD from world markets. While all three countries have boosted their production in recent months, there will still be a net deficit on world markets. If the U.S. enforces these sanctions strictly, as we have to assume they would, there will be short fall of over a million BOPD reaching global ports, under the best scenario. I am taking into account that during the last sanction period Iran still manage to sell 3.2 mm BOPD. But, then we have to remember that this U.S. administration is much more likely to enforce them strictly."

    So, regardless of the political situation in Iran, there is going to be shortage of oil soon no matter what, in my view."

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-We-Expect-An-Oil-Price-Spike-In-November.html
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
  2. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    .... and the oil (incl. everything Iran can produce, .. and a whole lot more) has to flow, ... especially when you've got a brand new $26 trillion dollar 'road' that needs debt service


    "Xi first announced the trade initiative also known as the “New Silk Road” in 2013, which needs more than $26 trillion of infrastructure investment by 2030 to keep regional economies expanding. The project includes railways, power plants, ports, highways and other projects across the world, with Beijing providing billions of dollars in credit to drive these schemes."

    Is China’s $26 Trillion New Silk Road A Debt Trap?
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Chinas-26-Trillion-New-Silk-Road-A-Debt-Trap.html
     

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