World oil consumption growth .... riding on two wheels?

Discussion in 'Street and Performance Bikes' started by Carcus, Aug 30, 2018.

  1. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Just a thought. .. Not researched... but

    Asia Pacific region is experiencing a gigantic growth in motorcycle/scooter sales.
    I think it's possible that these new owners 'may' be fairly resilient to a rise in fuel prices. If an individual is only riding say 3,000 to 9,000 miles per year on 50 to 80 mpg ... he may be able to absorb a 25% or 50% rise in gasoline price. If there are many tens of million (perhaps even 100 million) new bikes being added to the world every year .... that will drive world oil consumption by a significant amount --- mostly immune from oil price demand destruction (?)

    /my rough math (very rough) says that close to 1 million bpd of oil consumption could be added annually just due to 2 wheel sales.

    ----------------------------------- (from 2 years ago)
    "Vehicle ownership rates in India remain far below the level in advanced economies as well as other middle-income developing countries, according to the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.

    India’s motorcycle ownership rates are fairly high, at 108 motorcycles per 1,000 population, and steadily increasing, which puts the country ahead of most peers, though far behind Malaysia with 362.

    But overall vehicle penetration remains low, at 149 motor vehicles per 1,000 population, compared with 273 in Brazil, 277 in Mexico, 512 in Britain and 781 in the United States.

    So there is enormous scope for fuel demand to increase over the next decade as more households obtain access to a motor vehicle - initially two-wheelers before some upgrade to four wheels."
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...owners-drive-gasoline-boom-kemp-idUSKCN11L1GL
     
  2. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

  3. EdwinTheMagnificent

    EdwinTheMagnificent Legend In His Mind

    Two wheels are better than four MOST of the time.
     
  4. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Probably so, ... when we're looking from the perspective of "how do I get from 38 mpg to 45 mpg" ....

    The problem is, .. we're looking at a much more serious problem (imo) ... and we're going to have to figure out how all these dense populated asian countries (cities) are going to transition from world 3 to world 1.... without creating world war iii.

    /BTdubs -- my opinion is that wwi and wii had everything to do with oil -- and the tremendous prosperity that came with it -- (and nothing to do with some archduke getting shot ... despite what the (victors write the) history books tell us")
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
  5. Jay

    Jay Well-Known Member

    First, the bikes that Indonesians and southeast Asians ride get well north of 100mpg. Second, shortage meme drum bangers completely ignore advances in technology. They see the expanding demand for energy but can't see technological advances, like fracking, that greatly expand supply. The "peak oil" drum bangers have been predicting we'll run out of oil for more than a century:

    https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354

    and it doesn't matter how many times they've been utterly, laughably wrong, someone will always step up to bang the shortage meme drum again. We have the technology, today, to sequester CO2 from the air and make new liquid fuel out of it to power our ICEs practically forever. This would be a closed-loop cycle that doesn't add CO2 to the atmosphere. The missing ingredient to make this practical? Energy. It takes a lot of energy to do this. Nuclear power completely solves the energy part of the problem--another technology we have available today.
     
  6. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Why in the world would we need expensive Nuclear powered alternative fuel plants if there's limitless amounts of cheap oil? Not sure what point you're making here?

    In regards to the scooters .... Why not look up India's(pop. 1.3 bazillion) oil consumption historical chart over the past 10 years or so, .. and tell me what you see?
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
  7. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Not sure the ol' 80cc scooter is going to cut it on all the new Indian super slab.

    "
    “The increased pace of award during the last financial year which ended on Saturday and ongoing projects will help us achieve the target of constructing 40 km per day in 2018-19,” Gadkari said."


    Highway construction doubles in 4 years with 27km a day in 2017-18
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
    -------------

    If I'm doing the math right, .. they are shooting for a 4 lane route 66 (Chicago to Santa Monica) equivalent EVERY YEAR!
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
  8. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

  9. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Best I could find . ... motorcycles are currently outselling scooters in India by about 2 to 1. 2 wheel annual sales this year probably over 23 million ,.. vs just 10 million or so at the start of the decade.

    /and mo-peds are dead
     
  10. EdwinTheMagnificent

    EdwinTheMagnificent Legend In His Mind

    I'm embarrassed to even say this , but...……… I like the Honda Grom. 134 MPG is not bad.
     

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