Discussion in 'In the News' started by xcel, Apr 26, 2018.
We do have lots of fatties in this state/country.
There's some press drives out as of yesterday on the new Electric Golf -- or ID3 as they like to call it (MEB platform) , .. I don't know what Ford is going to call it.
takeaways: nice car (like you'd expect), not cheap ($33k + for the base (205 mile) model), battery will be warrantied for 70%/8 years (decent). Charge at up to 125 kw, so road trips are doable, but long road trips will be a pain (imo).
Take the old Golf we've known for decades. Add at least $10k to the price. and
-- slightly nicer driving, sportier (and heavier) ride
--fuel costs -- might save a little (charging from home) might not (charging away from home)
-- maintenance costs -- should be some savings here, ... one would hope
-- day to day driving -- a little more convenient (no gas stations)
-- road trip driving -- you're probably gonna miss the old gas station days
2020 ID3 driven:
Take the newest Golf they sell here now ( 1.4 turbo 6MT ) , and you can get the most basic trim for about $20K ,
and just drive the crap out of it for 15 years. Don't worry about battery degradation on a BEV. Don't worry about rust.
Sure , VW reliability is a ??? , at least for me , but I would do it.
Take as many road trips as you want , fuel is cheap and easy to find.
This would be a tough sell in the U.S. (i.e. makes no sense, economically speaking)
In Germany or the UK, .. gas is over $6/gallon. So even if they are averaging around 28c/kWh (residential and charge station), my math says they are beating a 40 mpg gasoline car by about $70 per 1,000 miles driven. So @ 12,000 miles per year they are saving maybe $840 dollars or so per year on fuel.
My guess is the european ID3 buyer would still come out behind (vs 1.4 turbo 6mt) , but it makes the price somewhat more bearable. Battery degradation (and related vehicle depreciation) will be the big unknowns, .. and won't be known for quite a few years.
/the "eco laws" are coming on a lot faster in europe (i.e. can't drive in city centers on petrol) -- so there's another substantial factor
// if this is the "peoples car" of the future, then I think a lot of peoples are going to get priced out of the market.
Europe -- the land(s) of high gas prices --
Toyota is killing it with the hybrids --
"Customers are responding very well to the new Corolla Hatchback and Touring Sports, which are now available with two hybrid electric powertrains : 1.8L – 122 hp and 2.0L - 180hp (as part of Toyota’s dual-hybrid strategy). The combined hybrid mix is 83%. And the Corolla Sedan is for the first time also available with a hybrid electric powertrain that represents about 50% of the new model sales.
Demand is also strong for the new RAV4 and for the new premium crossover Lexus UX, with hybrid electric mix of 72% and 92% respectively."
Toyota Motor Europe sold 578,400 vehicles in the first half of the year, achieving a Hybrid Electric Vehicle Mix of >50%
NCM811 seems to be all the rage ..(VW's choice, I think)
It looks like a lot of the battery planning is centered around NCM811 (cathode material ratios) batteries with production planned to ramp up in the next 5 years or so.
/Tesla uses NCA , .. but there is speculation that they are switching to NCM.
//so the batteries keep getting better, but research and manufacturing upgrades take lots of time, .. materials acquisition does look like an issue that won't go away
What do we know about next-generation NMC 811 cathode?
Good comprehensive (and not too technical) article here:
Report: SK Innovation to begin making NMC 811 cells in Q3 2019
/also of note, the one commenter on this article says LG Chem and SK Innovation are duking it out (I guess in Korea that would be Taekwondo?) for the VW contract.
"Battery makers including LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Envision, and China’s CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology) have been seeking to reformulate their cell chemistry ratios to NMC 811 which is expected to inherently increase cell energy density somewhat (perhaps about 10 percent or more) besides reducing costs. Some new NMC 811 cell designs may also be paired with graphite that includes some silicon for further improvements in energy density."
You started me looking... BMW announcement utilizing NMC 811 in China.
Pretty good article here, .. on upcoming changes to battery chemistry:
NCM 90: successor of NCM 811 battery cells
My takeaways from this and other articles referenced above:
Auto manufacturers (and battery suppliers) are much more interested in keeping costs down than extending your battery life past the warranty period. i.e. the higher cobalt content batteries do look to be longer lasting, but it might cost an extra $400 or so per pack. So ... even though the consumer would gladly pay an extra $400 for an upgraded battery that could end up outlasting the warranty by several years, .. the manufacturers apparantly have no interest in that.
/ other BEV thoughts. -- I bet we'll see software changes/"upgrades" after you purchase your BEV that end up reducing range and increasing charge times in order to extend the batteries out to the end of the warranty period. That's what Tesla/Nissan have done thus far -- I expect that to continue with them and become standard practice industry wide. Just my 2c.
// I expect the OEM's will make it very difficult (like Tesla has done) for 3rd parties to get involved in the battery business. .. the OEM's will likely want control of the battery even after it is no longer useful/installed in the original vehicle.
I actually DO think the batteries will continue to improve.
But the OEM's will have the tools to pry you out of your BEV -- (i.e. collect and re-use the battery on their time frame). The price of buying a laptop on wheels, I suppose. -- they can always reduce your range / increase your charging times via OTA updates (in the interest of "safety", of course)
That's because if they continue to use cobalt, the extra cost will become higher than $400. Cobalt is the limiting mineral, not lithium like some headlines pronounce. We don't mine it. We get it as a by product from copper and nickel mining. It providing longer lasting batteries doesn't matter if you can't make enough of them.
On top of that, the majority of cobalt comes from the Congo region, with well documented use of child labor to get it.
It's always something, isn't it?
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Tesla Inc expects global shortages of nickel, copper and other electric-vehicle battery minerals down the road ..."
Exclusive: Tesla expects global shortage of electric vehicle battery minerals - sources
/Guess I'll quit worrying about it and just head on down the road.
You left out the important bit, "...due to underinvestment in the mining sector." There isn't a shortage on material in most cases, just a temporary bottleneck in the supply chain. Toyota was at risk of a nickel shortage for batteries when Prius popularity took off. That is no longer the case, and they are likely still using NiMH in many cases simply because the investment has been paid off, thus the batteries are cheap for them.
In the next few years, there will be a shortage of Li-ion batteries for cars because current production won't meat demand, but the major mines are expanding. Like OPEC, and unlike US tight petroleum, these mines weren't producing lithium simply because they could. They were only digging up to meet demand. Now demand is surging, so they will start digging up more. Same with the other materials, copper production has been climbing, but there could be limited shortages as production isn't ready to meet demand.
Even then, there are solutions for those events. The moral and political issues already has batteries reducing cobalt content. Not enough copper for motors? We'll switch to smaller motors and add a transmission. A couple of the major auto parts suppliers are already working on two and three speed ones for EVs. Even without a copper shortage, the entry level BEV will likely use a transmission and DC motor to reduce cost.
VW says a 260 mile Golf BEV (id3) is going to cost about $45,000. You sound a lot more optimistic ...
How much do you think it's going to cost?
The Prius Prime MSRP starts at $27,500. In Japan, it is $36,800. So prices quoted for one country can vary greatly.
The ID3 is so far going to be Europe only. Quoted prices for cars, and pretty much everything, in Europe include VAT. Subtract out that 20%, and the ID3 is $37,500, putting it in line with the Bolt, Leaf LR, and Model 3.
But the price you quote is for a special launch edition of the car. The entry level one will start below $33,660, or $28,050 before VAT. Which is lower than the Ioniq Electric and Leaf starting price of $30,315 and $29,990, and the ID3 will have about 30 more miles of range by the EPA than them.
imo (of course) ..
"They" will never sell you the good cheap batteries to put in your low cost long range BEV-POV (personally owned vehicle). .. not gonna happen.
If/when "they" get $100/kWh batteries that last 15years+/200,000+ miles, .. they will end up in autonomous fleet vehicles. Operated by the OEMs or by their affiliates.
I think we (the world) may be a little closer to the autonomy days than some think ... mid to late 2020's seems possible to me -- at least in certain "geo-fenced" markets (hell, Elon says at the end of this year). V2x (which I think will be a necessity) is going into new cars in europe next year. VW started installing WLANp network stuff in every vehicle this year. I don't know where China is at but I think not far behind. US would be in roughly the same boat but Trump's administration blocked what V2X Obama's was pushing through.
Once the OEMs start operating autonomous fleets, they will have little to no interest in selling you any sort of budget vehicle (certainly not a low cost highway capable (i.e. 70 kWh+) BEV). You will be priced/regulated out of the market -- by design.
If you cross your eyes, and squint a little bit, it's not hard to envision that this is what Bill Ford and Hackett have been telling us in the "no more cars" future:
"Ford, though, said the freedom of the open road will be an archaic concept for urban dwellers.
"As we move forward, the world is getting ever more crowded, and in particular cities are getting ever more crowded, Ford said. "Where are those cars going to go? How can you afford them? Where can you garage them? The freedom of mobility does not necessarily equate to the freedom of ownership. We'll have freedom, but it just may not be under the same economic model we have today."
Bill Ford: Computing tech will upend the auto industry
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