2018 Tesla Model 3 - 210 mile "Standard" or 310 mile "Long Range"

Discussion in 'In the News' started by xcel, Jul 29, 2017.

  1. Erdrick

    Erdrick Well-Known Member

    Shame on Tesla for offering a more affordable (less than average transaction price of vehicles today, considering base vehicle and $7500 tax credit) EV with great performance and safety?!
    It isn't the responsibility of corporations to help people control their spending.
    In fact, there is nothing predatory at all about what Tesla is doing.
    If the general public can't look at a total purchase price, which is all that Tesla openly advertises, and make a good financial decision then we must put the blame on the consumer.
    I was going to get a Model S and decided against it as it would have stretched me too thin in also having to find my kids' college funds.
    The Model 3 on the other hand works for me.
    I've done the math though.
    That isn't to say TCO had anything to do with my decision though.
     
    dr61 likes this.
  2. Erdrick

    Erdrick Well-Known Member

    Which one are you getting?
     
  3. Erdrick

    Erdrick Well-Known Member

    Lying in finance related reporting for a publicly traded company is NG.
    I certainly hope this isn't the case here.
     
  4. Erdrick

    Erdrick Well-Known Member

    Ummm... don't know how to break this to you, but Tesla doesn't have "dealers."
    All new cars are custom ordered.
    So, you most certainly will be able to get the $35k M3.
    It will just be black and have hubcaps though.
    Still breakneck acceleration and 220 miles of range!
    Also, as Tesla constantly updates and ungraded their cars OTA, the argument to get a new car is largely becoming less (major hardware revisions aside) relevant.
     
    dr61 likes this.
  5. xcel

    xcel PZEV, there's nothing like it :) Staff Member

    Hi Erdick:

    Whooa, the average new transaction price in the U.S. includes 1/2, 3/4 and 1-Ton Pickups. In July alone, more than 36,800 Ford Super Duty's were sold with an ATP of $55,000 per truck. The Model 3s' ATP will probably come in somewhere around $40 to $45k including the current and future Federal TCs and state incentives which is much higher than the average compact cars ATP of around $19k. That is the upfront price and TCO going forward you can compare against.

    I am not chastising you for considering a Model 3. And there is no shame. As long as you can afford it and understand the TCO is steep, I am with you 100 percent! What I am pointing out however is the glitz is in the eye of the beholder and has been hyped beyond all reproach placing thousands of current and future owners at financial risk with their second largest purchase. The Tesla S and Xs have mediocre reliability, continue to be dogged with poor fit and finish, and the TCOs are atrocious compared to what I and the vast majority in the country are driving on a daily basis.

    Wayne
     
  6. ALS

    ALS Super Moderator Staff Member

    Erdick,
    I've learned one thing about Musk lately, is he always talks how affordable his product is but in reality they're not what he promotes.

    I looked into his NEW Solar roof and found that according to the website calculator it's going to save me $5,000 a year in electricity.

    With all the government subsidies it's only going to cost me $39,000 to $41,000. REALLY? He said his solar roof was comparable with the cost of a new replacement roof.

    A new roof on my home would cost around $6K to completely replace with 40 year asphalt shingles, $10K-$12K if I wanted slate.

    I spent in 2016, $720 total for my electric service. $16 a month of the average $60 bill, is the hook up service fee.

    If I'm only paying $720 a year now, HOW am I going to save $5,000 a year?

    It's Musk's job to promote his company and their products but I've found many times they don't measure up to the hype.

    His Tesla's are nice cars but they're not even close to being worth what they're selling for, just on the depreciation side alone.

    At the rate I'm seeing these vehicles value drop over the last three years, you're looking at an eight year old Tesla worth less than $15K. All of that depreciation is based on the replacement cost of the battery.

    $15K is a long way from $80K to $100K. That's the problem with BEV's, look at the price of an used 14 or 15 Leaf with 20K-30K on the clock, under $9K?
    That's 30% of the cost of a new one just two or three years before.

    If the early Tesla's have battery issues such as holding a charge when they're coming up on seven or eight years stick a fork in the resale value. Who in their right mind is going to spend $25K for a new battery on an eight year old Tesla?

    EDIT:

    Just saw this post on a financial board I hang on. My point has just been made on owning a Tesla.


    https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/ludicrous-depreciation-my-2014-p85

    Wonder if he will get the car paid off before the batteries die..........

    I'm feeling the pain of depreciation depression on my P85+ and the the envy of those who have Auto Pilot, next gen seats, tire pressure sensor gauges, heated steering wheel, and 4G LTE to mention a few since I bought my car in late December 2014. Checked in to trading my July 2014 Vin #38,xxx build P85+ (that has everything available at the time even rear facing seats) for a P85D or a Model X and was stunned at how much my car has depreciated in a mere 14 months from when I bought it. The car brand new had a retail value of $127,500 and now is only worth around $75,000. That is a MIND BLOWING $52,500 loss in depreciation in a mere 14 months! Holy Sh#t! That is a loss of $4,107 a month. Too put even more salt in my wounds I owe $89,000 on my loan as of now so i am upside down another $14,000.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
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  7. ALS

    ALS Super Moderator Staff Member

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  8. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    If he turns up with the same role (and a bigger paycheck) for another car manufacturer, you could sort of look at it as good news (validation) for Tesla. (i.e. maybe Tesla really does have "20 year batteries", and the other OEM's are now going to have to source their own gigafactories).

    --could be interesting to watch and see where Kurt Kelty ends up.
     
  9. seftonm

    seftonm Veteran Staff Member

    A quick look at Auto Trader shows 2014 BMW 750Li models going for around 70k. The Model S's trade-in value was better than the BMW's selling price. Is the Model S depreciation significantly worse than other cars in its class?
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
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  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait Well-Known Member

    Most luxury cars have steeper depreciation when compared to similar non-luxury models.

    Then previous generations can see more depreciation when the next one arrives with new and better features. Tesla not following the industry standard for generation life cycles, and just releasing improvements and new features on a year to to year basis throws any consumer planning around the old standard out the window.
     
  11. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    .... is the Model S depreciation significantly worse?


    Without really looking into the numbers ... my take on it is no. Upper end luxury cars, like a Mercedes S class, depreciate like mad. Most of the 1%ers don't want a car thats more than 5 or 6 years old, and it gets really expensive to maintain an S class beyond that point for prospective used buyers.

    I also think the 'pre-autopilot capable' Teslas most likely took a big "depreciation hit" from lack of future-proofing hardware.

    imo, ... Going forward (assuming all Teslas are adequately "future proofed" with self driving hardware):
    - 8 year batteries? -- Used Tesla values will drop like rocks (as do competing luxury cars)
    - 20 year batteries? -- Teslas will hold their value much better than the piston competition
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
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  12. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    FWIW,...

    The long range model 3 battery is warrantied for 8 years, 120,000 miles.

    If you pull up the trade-in value of an 8 year old BMW 335d with 120,000 miles on it, --- about $6,400.

    ....I predict in 2025, a used model 3 with 120k miles that can still move under it's own power will fetch north of $6,000.
    -- which car do you think will have cost more in 'fuel' and maintenance dollars over the 8 year period? I'm going to say the 335d, .. by a substantial margin.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
    dr61 likes this.
  13. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    How long to "pump 120 miles" of range into it
    With a plain 115 v-??? house "plug"??
    115 house plugs -max out at maybe 20 amps-so JUST 2300 watt hrs per hour??
    Geez I seem to remember a PIP needed 250 watt hrs per mile-so just 8 miles per hour of charge??
    I must be wrong-
    Now 220 v-I think our old dryer-takes 30 amps? just 6000 watts-
    6000 watts is just 24 miles per hour charging??
    What am I missing?
    115 VOLTS-20 amps- just 8 miles for an hour of charging?
    220-maybe 24 miles per charge?
    I must be missing something
    These 250 mile range cars-take 10 hours to charge?
    Is there some super fast "top up" setup??
    Are there any "gas stations" set up to "fill them up"


    Wayne-best guess -60 mph energy use?? 250 watt hrs per mile???
     
    ALS likes this.
  14. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member


    You're missing my post from earlier in the thread:


    Standard Battery

    • Range: 220 miles (EPA estimated)
    • Supercharging rate: 130 miles of range per 30 minutes
    • Home charging rate: 30 miles of range per hour (240V outlet, 32A)
    Long Range Battery – $9,000

    • Range: 310 miles
    • Supercharging rate: 170 miles of range per 30 minutes
    • Home charging rate: 37 miles of range per hour (240V outlet, 40A)
     
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  15. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    IF (huge if) Tesla turns out to have 20 year batteries, .. then they will ensure that every used Tesla is resold through their channels (i.e. must be certified for autopilot features to work, used battery warranty, etc..). The eventual industry-wide impact (as other OEMs follow suit) would be to reduce total annual new car sales volume by 1/3 or more.

    The promised "affordable" EV would then finally appear, ..... as a 6 year old 'Tesla Certified' used model 3.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
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  16. xcel

    xcel PZEV, there's nothing like it :) Staff Member

    Hi All:

    While speaking of the Model S' depreciation, a better competitive comparison to the Model 3 might be the $41k B-Class despite its minuscule 87-miles of AER?

    An 8-year old, $40k OTD, 220 mile range, Model 3 at 100 to 120k miles "may" have 150 to 160 miles of range from full and be well into the steep range degradation part of the curve - 20+ miles loss per year??? Does Tesla supply a new 60 kWh pack and install for $15 to $20k? The pack is not the only thing to be concerned with in an 8-year old car as there are some uber expensive electronics inside as well. Imagine the cost to replace that electric motor out of warranty! Would any of us purchase an 8-year old compact car that cost $40k new for $20k after the pack replacement so the original owner can recover at least $5k from said $40k investment? The pack will surely cost the consumer more than their car is worth at that point and most just sell it for whatever they can get and move on. Same thing if a vehicle needs a new engine in most cases.

    Consumer experience with BEVs is that their resale/TIV is atrocious. There is no reason to believe the Model 3 will be any different.

    Charlie, your 250 Wh/mile at 60 mph sounds reasonable given the most efficient S P90 is just rated at 320 Wh/mi and that probably occurs at 65 to 67 mph. With the standard alloys and tires, maybe it will be closer to 200 Wh/mi at 60 mph? You also brought up one of the hurdles of BEV ownership.

    93-mile range 2016 Kia Soul BEV

    [​IMG]

    That is 21-hours from 32% to Full on a 120V outlet at just over 1 kW. 7 hours on a 3kWh or 3.5 hours on a 6 kWh for 63 miles on a 240V charger. The Model 3 will be very similar. You have to purchase and install the 240V Level2 charger without a doubt as 60-hours from flat to full on a 120V outlet is a non-starter for a 60 kWh pack BEV.

    Wayne
     
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  17. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    I think the gurus who do the new car tear downs might be able to analyze the Model 3 and see if it is built with 'reincarnation' in mind ......

    IF (again, huge if) .. but IF it's a 20 year battery, then the car industry is in for a huge change.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
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  18. xcel

    xcel PZEV, there's nothing like it :) Staff Member

    Hi All:

    I should do a Geico quote on an S but I wonder if the "Sports Car" aspect of the Model 3 indicate it would be a higher risk car and insurance priced accordingly?

    Anyone own a Model S or X?

    Wayne
     
  19. ksstathead

    ksstathead Moderator

    30 miles per hour of charge on 240V at home will cover typical local mileage of most users with overnight charge. For longer trips, free level 3 charging is even available across Kansas, so it is beginning to be plausible as a road tripper.
    We are sub 200 wh/mi on the Leaf (5.2 mpk), and figure we add 36 miles per hour charging. Model 3 should do as well.
     
    xcel likes this.
  20. dr61

    dr61 Well-Known Member

    FYI Teslas come standard with a 240V - 32 to 40 amp charging units in the trunk. Buyers do not need to purchase one. If you own or rent a home with a dryer plug you can charge from it overnight (30-37 miles per hour). If you already have an EVSE like we do, it comes with an adapter for standard J1772 level 2 charging.

    Also of course Tesla has the biggest DC fast charging (Supercharging) network in the US, and it will double in size in the next year. 130 to 170 miles in 30 min.
     
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