Lab identifies megatrends likely to impact the automotive industry through 2030. Wayne Gerdes – CleanMPG – July 21, 2016 The Hyundai IONIQ. Leveraging the enthusiasm for Hyundai’s next generation of efficient mobility through its all-new IONIQ HEV, PHEV and BEV lineup, the Flying H brand announced at the Geneva Motor Show that it has set up a Korean Lab that focuses on the future of everything related to mobility. According to Hyundai, Project IONIQ Lab sets out to predict the future of mobility through innovation, research and academic projects. The open innovation organization encourages cooperation among Hyundai and Academia. Through the Lab, Hyundai will suggest ideas for innovative technologies and concepts of future mobility that will enrich our daily lives. The Lab will explore four key areas: Freedom to use mobility whenever and wherever Freedom to connect to everyday life while on the move Freedom from accidents and inconveniences Freedom from environmental pollution and energy exhaustion Project IONIQ Lab will be led by Dr. Soon Jong Lee, Professor of Seoul National University and Head of Korea Future Design & Research Institute. He will be supported by 10 researchers and 10 consultant experts. The group has already issued its first collective output, a summary of 12 future ‘megatrends’ that are likely to affect the auto industry in 2030. From a ‘hyper-connected society’ and ‘eco-ism’ to the ‘decentralization of power’ and ‘mega-urbanization’ the megatrends set out the Project IONIQ Lab’s vision of the world, predicting how mobility will interact with each trend. Through the new Project IONIQ Lab, Hyundai will attempt to predict changes in future mobility and study possible scenarios; develop new types of mobility according to societal changes and people’s lifestyles; and create new service models and mobility experiences to extend the role and definition of ‘cars’. 12 Future ‘Megatrends’ Hyper-connected Society – Technological evolution in the fields of Cloud Computing and Big Data Analysis, together with Network technology are forecasted to increase data transmission speed by orders opf magnitude. This will result in a shift into a “Hyper-connected society”, a time when people get/are connected to things and the society on a real-time basis. Mobility is expected to become a focal point in the “Hyper-connected society” with the influence of innovation that is being applied to the automotive industry. It is becoming very important to deeply examine/analyze what kinds of information and resources mobility will be exchanging with people and infra. Aging Society – By 2030, most developed countries are expected to be hyper-aging society with the ratio of 65 years old or older is 21 percent or more due to low birth rate and a rapidly aging population. Under this standard, strategy to target the baby boom generation will be increasingly important as they will become majority of the market. Future mobility is expected to cope with the elderly needs including health, healing and communication. A new type of mobility such as a wearable robot will be introduced in the market as the elderly need to maintain their activity. They will be regarded as a core target in providing in-car services or diverse auto-related services such as car-sharing, ride-hailing, etc. Eco-ism – Needs for alternative energy is increasing due to worldwide and governmental initiative to sort out environmental issues such as global warming, climate change, fossil fuel depletion, etc. Most countries will impose stricter environmental regulation which will lead to more construction for infrastructure driven by government and technical progress in utilizing alternative energy and increasing efficiency. Various eco-friendly mobility offerings will be in the market requiring sufficient infrastructure to support it. Manufactures or transportation providers are expected to deal with this by developing eco-technologies to meet the relevant regulations. Multi-Layered Mash-up merges value chains from several different industries. Each unit of value in the chain of any industry will be improved by taking advantage of several areas such as technology, culture, science, art and etc. It becomes increasingly possible due to advance in MR (mixed reality) and ICT technology which lessens limitation in time and space and tackles barriers among industries. Within the auto industry, mobility’s role as a space is going to expand offering seamless user experience as mobility will be less limited. It will be possible to search new business opportunities by collaborating with various industries and areas. Context-Awareness based Individualization technology is able to provide customized information making use of biological and emotional signal of users and the meaning of spaces to users without users’ being aware of the processing. It is far beyond the current stage which depends on the information that users input and will be able to design and propose personal life-style of the future. Based on AI technology, hyper-individualized mobility will offer various in-car services that reacts to personal condition and emotional states in real-time. High Concept Society relates identifying patterns and opportunities, appreciating artistic and emotional beauty, and combining what appears to be unrelated ideas into strong innovative actionable ideas. As manufacturing is standardized due to disruptive manufacturing revolution such as open source, 3d printing technology, cloud sourcing and etc., converging stories and ideas that appeal in emotional ways will be crucial. Capabilities indigenous to humans not replaceable by AI will be spotlighted and even more developed. This trend will make companies fragile to produce creativity collapse as it lowers barriers of entry of conventional industries. Consequently open-sourced mobility manufacturing system based on convergence between technology and art, aesthetics, etc. will enable consumers to realize their own ideas and creativity leading private-manufacturing market to a rise. Decentralization of Power typically associated with global, local, mainstream, and alternative cultures are starting to blur as network technologies become more open and inclusive. This blurring also facilitates an emergent period for various minority groups, allowing their normally overshadowed concerns to come to the spotlight. In addition, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterized by technological convergence and the coalescence of the physical and virtual realms, will only accelerate this trend. The rise of various minority groups will upset the global status quo perpetuated by various governments, corporations, and key technologies and result in an intensified and expedited competition for leadership. Once a leader emerges for each link in the new value chain, convergence and cooperation will be the core values that guide the following industrial age. Anxiety and Chaos are being driven by unrelenting technological evolution. Cyber terrorism/crime, class polarization, techno-stress, and generational conflict are expected to increase. In addition, advancements in AI are threatening to markedly increase competition across all of human society. In light of these pressures, consumers will demand spaces and experiences that empathize and alleviate their anxieties. Mobility as a healing medium will become more important, no longer will it be simply a means of transport; its value will drastically increase and as a result there must be in-depth research and analysis into utilizing mobility interior spaces more effectively, according to user needs. Sharing Society – Advances in networking technologies have reduced the cost of sharing, lowering the bar for a "sharing economy" and accelerating its adoption. This new sharing economy, valuing economic rationality rather than social status, has started to enter the mainstream; goods are valued on their stories, experiences, and other intangible values in this new shared society. It is predicted that future mobility based on efficiency and economic viability will appeal to this new shared economy with on-demand services or platforms that maximize the user's mobility experiences. Co-Evolution – As AI and robotics developments begin to supplant human labor and develop emotive capabilities, humans to will be able to exchange thoughts and emotions with AI, resulting in convergence. While future robots may increase convenience for human beings, it may offset that by tipping cost efficiency against human labor on an unprecedented scale. Therefore, if humans are to find value in this new labor hierarchy, there must be interaction and mutual cooperation with AI to bring about result and further development. In terms of mobility, AI will mean perfect understanding between vehicle and machine, resulting in services that result in emotional bonding. Autonomous vehicle systems will also hard-override human errors in ability or judgement, and mobility as a whole will drastically reinvent its own value systems. In addition, it has become imperative to establish ethical rules for future mobility systems in order to assure safety, efficiency, and control. Mega-Urbanization – The UN predicts that by 2030, approximately 70 percent of the world population, 4.9 billion people, will be living in urban areas. It is expected that this rise of megacities will have major effects on urbanite mobility and housing patterns. Having tens of millions of people residing in increasingly denser areas raises issues concerning energy shortages, traffic congestion, pollution, further polarization, and a variety of others. It follows that people's needs, preferences, and methods of transport will all change in accordance, drastically changing every aspect of public transportation, including hardware, software, and the services themselves. Neo Frontierism – In order to alleviate problems that come with overcrowding, new concepts driven by the advancement of drone technology will open the skies. The final frontier of Earth, the oceans and subterranean areas will also see a renewed period of pioneering. While humans extend their influences in the air, underwater, space, and the Earth itself, various industries such as energy, construction, IT, and mobility will innovate heavily in stride. The expansion of humanity's physical domain presents a vast opportunity for the mobility industry to diversify and expand into. The Hyundai IONIQ Lab How is that level of future focus for Hyundai IONIQ Labs “Future Think” 1.0 look now?