China Tanking- no surprise

Discussion in 'Business and Economics' started by phoebeisis, Jan 8, 2016.

  1. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    Resident crank here
    I have mentioned that I didn't buy into the
    CHINA WILL SURPASS USA in respect to world wide "power" soon

    For the last 10 years we have been hearing the same BS we heard 35 years ago about Japan
    That they are BUYING us because of superior economy-superior people-
    Yeah we sold Japanese OVERPRICED REAL ESTATE
    And we sold China OVERPRICED BONDS( yeah we can DEFAULT on them-who cares-or just inflate them away)
    China because of manufacturing capacity-CHEAP LABOR-and technology developed elsewhere
    was supposed to bury us
    BUT my contention was always that China would TANK
    Because their ELITES- cared NOTHING for the "have nots"
    same reason they fought a 30 years long Commie Revolt
    But the elites in China-grind the noses of the HAVE NOTS -big cars-taking care of family members-pissing on not family-(sickened 250,000 chinese babies with adulterated baby "milk"-(who the hell does THAT)
    Our elites-in general-have better sense-and perhaps some morals/scruples that would make that less likely

    Anyway this is my
    I TOLD YOU SO-
    China will tank(like japan did-is doing)-the haves are urinating on the have nots-
    and the have nots have world wide access to see how other folks live-
    so they aren't happy-
    Unhappy Have Nots on THAT SCALE???
    with potential climate change-DROUGHT FAMINE possible??

    We-USA- really do have a better system
    because we at least plausibly pretend to care about one another- even when we aren't family
    some of that "pretending to care" isn't translatable to China-
    because it is religious based-the three biblical religions are BIG on ALMS giving to poor etc
    and Christians "rich man- probability heaven-camel eye of needle" etc
    even not believers are inculcated with these ideas
    In China-ha,ha godless commies with the Russia "mother Church" background-are a rudderless bunch-1.3 BILLION folks with no inherent scruples-just "take care of blood relatives" not even Tribal loyalties anymore
    The Chinese are going to "Live in interesting Times"
    Unfortunate because they-ones I meet here-are soooo nice
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2016
  2. ALS

    ALS Super Moderator Staff Member

    Problem with the Chinese elites is they have been lying their asses off on the countries GNP growth for at least the last ten years. Most of the experts I've read said that the real numbers were running between thirty and fifty percent of what they were reporting. Remember two or three years ago they went on a commodity buying spree until they ran out of room to store the stuff. They were not using it, they bought it in mass to create a fabricated demand in their manufacturing sector. That scam works for only a short term but eventually you either run out money to buy it or space to store it. People smarter and me were screaming that they were lying due to their national energy use didn't match their industrial output. These guys were all screaming that the bubble burst was only a short time away and the rally promoters in the main stream media poo pooed them away. Who's laughing now China is screwed over the long term because as they say the cat is out of the bag on the Governments BS industrial production game (Ghost Cities come to mind). Most investors are going to stay far far away from their markets for some time.

    IE right now with Oil there are only so many storage sites and tankers to hold the excess oil, once there is no storage space left for the excess production it gets really bad on the cost side. U.S. and E.U. oil "demand" continues to drop year over year and I don't see it doing anything other than stabilizing with an occasional short term bump. I do see the price going up and fully expect $60 oil by next summer as production decreases.

    I was reading some posts on a financial board I hang on where two of the guys own oil wells in Texas. They were saying today that their production costs were running around $35 a barrel and that includes the Wild Catters. That is far less than what the Saudi's and the Russians need to break even.
     
  3. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    Al
    How in the world can Saudi production costs be more than TX costs?
    with that HUGE reservoir-and still fairly shallow(I think relative to some of our wells)


    Oh-of course the Chinese elite were/are lying SOBs-
    And they are over extended over promised ALL over the world
    Promising to build finance a HUGE damn in South America-Brazil maybe??
    Buying up-or LONG TERM renting huge tracts of land-of questionable provenance-in Africa to Corporate farm with local workers
    doing "some work" but arrogantly bring in outsiders for much of the lower level work(pissing off the locals)

    And they were even considering-maybe the actually did-
    investing BIG $$ up to buy up Afganistan Iron Ore "finds"-reserves
    Yeah they figured they could do business with the afgan locals-DUH
    Like China has no unfortunate experience dealing with muslim "locals"
    the folks who "sword killed" 30 people in a chinese train station- about 1 year ago-were unhappy "chinese muslims"-


    They chinese are heading for a bruising
    unfortunate in many ways
    very low oil prices aren't great for USA oil/NG business-
    Louisiana is dependent on oil NG
    Wells here in the Gulf have been shutting down for a while-puting LOTS of folks out of work-and the supply folks-running boats out to them-out of business
     
  4. basjoos

    basjoos Well-Known Member

    The Chinese situation reminds me of the Soviet Union in the 80's. They used 5 year plans to guide their industrial output and the numbers would often be fudged at the end of the 5 year plan to make the results look better than the plan called for (a trend encouraged since Siberian exile was often the reward for failure). Since each 5 year plan was based on the figures from previous 5 year plan, reality gradually drifted away from the official numbers until reality finally bit them in the 90's.
     
  5. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    basjoos
    Right-Sorta centrally run
    really run as fiefdoms by Elite families
    BUT- China WORKED
    for 20 plus years
    because the Chinese WOULD starve you to death if you didn't work-
    the Roosikes with their marx creed " do work according to ability get paid according to needs"
    the chinese will let you starve to death-and NO medical care-
    So the workers work hard-for LOW WAGES
    Any country can do well if workers are motivated to work
    and starvation-and letting your kids DIE if you can't pay for medical care
    POTENT MOTIVATOR

    Unfortunately for china-its chickens are coming home to roost
    1)Internet means the 1.2 BILLION have nots are seeing how well the HAVES are living-this is what brought about their commie revolt in 1920-1949-
    2)And they see how well OTHER countries live

    Doubly unfortunate they don't have our cultural(biblical religious are big on alms taking care of poor-more or less they neighbors keeper)
    China dumped their Confuscian ethics(sic-no idea how to spell) and they DUMPED their Marxism religion
    So they are left with pretty primitive "only immediate family counts"
    Hence the
    1) adulterated food for higher profits
    2) adulterated drugs- " " "
    3) leaving pedestrians in street after hitting them-other pedestrians walking on by(in USA- people routinely hit and run-but they don't back up to finish them off-and other pedestrians give aid)

    China is in for a bruising-no scruples no ethics no religious "background"
    Our melting pot-implies all for one one for all-to some degree
    Modern states require people "act as if they care about fellow citizens"-a christian biblical sort of ethic-alms care for sick etc
     
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  6. PaleMelanesian

    PaleMelanesian Beat the System Staff Member

    Texas has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. Or... had. Around my town there are pumps every half mile, some even closer. I've got one on my property. There's one in the school parking lot.

    A lot has been pumped out already. No more poking a hole and letting the oil gush out, but there is still a lot left in there. It's basic stuff too, no fracking, no super-deep drilling.

    Edit: looked up numbers. Total oil extracted from East Texas is half of the total from Prudhoe Bay in Alaska. It's the 2nd biggest in the USA, and 10% as big as the Saudi field.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2016
    xcel likes this.
  7. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    Andrew thanks-the chart below
    is conventional oil reserves-I think.
    We-USA- have stunning amounts of unconventional oil reserves
    oil sands and oil shale-
    both are pricy-maybe $100/barrel in production cost
    and putting out plenty of C02 to harvest the "oil"
    But when folks on the right
    say we -USA-potentially have a HUGE amout of oil
    they aren't lying
    If we went all in to go wind nukes water electricity
    we meaning the entire world
    We could slowly safely use these reserves-
    they are expensive-and CO2 producing
    but…
    I really have not much idea on HOW BAD and HOW GOOD(who good and where good) man made CO2 Climate Change-will be-
    There is some chance we could luck out-and get more rainfall-where we actually want it
    Some chance something EXACTLY OPPOSITE of that
    so ….
    Yeah cheap energy-coal oil-drove our economies-
    it will be interesting to see how more expensive energy changes that
    We-USA- and everywhere else-are getting much better at efficiency-and conservation-
    another step-wind - water-local solar-nukes just might do the trick

    [​IMG]RBC
     
    xcel likes this.
  8. xcel

    xcel PZEV, there's nothing like it :) Staff Member

    Hi All:

    The good thing in all of this is oil consumption and GDP growth appears that they have been severed. If we can keep people out of FSPs for a few more years, this is a really good thing.

    [​IMG]

    With Oil now at < $30/BBL however, I can see a lot of really short sighted people buying the 15 to 20 mpg FSP because gas is cheap. :(

    Wayne
     
    BillLin likes this.
  9. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    Wayne
    Prices of used Suburbans-much higher than 2 years ago-indicate that we
    USA-E-INS haven't shaken fully the FSP bug.
    On the VERY bright side- current Suburbans are 16/23 or so-my 1998 12/17- 35-40% more miles for the same gallon-
    HUGE improvement-
    In 1998 Dodge's best 1/2 ton pickup FE was LESS than 12/17 maybe 12/16 or so
    The 3.0TD is what- 18/28 or so- 50% better- and real world 40 mpg at 60 mph-probably 30 mpg at 70 mph
    Since 1998 1/2 ton FSPs-on average-deliver maybe 35% better FE-
    Very good thing since pickups are HUGE sellers-
     
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