When-will Middle East -Saudi vs Iran-EXPLODE-with oil SPIKING

Discussion in 'Business and Economics' started by phoebeisis, Jan 6, 2016.

  1. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    Ok-
    I am the resident Middle East Crank.
    But the Middle East-thanks mostly to our Republican president's ARAB SPRING- with some help from Hillary
    pushing out Gadaffi(stupid-our air power)
    and Hillary and the President's and the Republicans pushing the WRONG direction in Syria
    There are no moderate Sunni Syrian Rebels
    If the Sunni Rebels- win(Al Quaida ISIS etc)and the Middle East is in the midst of a sectarian war
    Sunni vs Shia-
    First order of business will be
    1) murder ethnically cleanse the almost 1 million christian syrians
    2) Murder the Alawites-maybe 10-15% of syria-Assad is an alewife-some SHIA offshoot
    3)Murder the Shia-maybe 25% of Syria-if you include Alawites

    The Saudi recently BEHEADED 48 PRISONERS-
    One of them was a prominent Shia Cleric -our state dept suggested they not kill him
    but the Saudis-are Saudis-and they did
    maybe 15% of Saudia Arabia-3 million of 25 million- are Shia
    and of course Iran-persians-
    not Arabs/semitic tribeS arrived in ME maybe 5000 years ago-hebrews are/were a semitic tribe-and not always on bad terms with their fellow semites

    Anyway Iran and Saudis have broken off Diplomatic relations-
    they are already fighting 2 or three PROXY WARS
    1)Yemen
    2)Syria
    3) some other crummy place that escapes me

    Why is this important to us
    OIL-
    The price is extremely low now
    and we-USA/CANADA had good quick oil potential-until the price crashed and wells are being closed
    If the Saudis and Iran go FULL FORCE
    First order of business will be to attack one another's OIL FACILITIES
    And to seal the Straights of Hormuz
    Oil-despite Chinese demand dropping-will SPITE
    to more than $150-and it will happen-suddenly-days to weeks

    We-USA- are unfortunately SAUDI allies-allies of the folks who brought us 9/11
    OSMAMA- ISIS the whole deal tracks back to the HOUSE OF SAUD'S brand of ISLAM

    We could suddenly have LOTS of new visitors here-just like 2006-2008
    and plenty of folks bought Suburbans-like mine-but much better FE- still horrible- 15 mpg city(on a good day) and plenty of pickups-once again-real people real world-15 mpg city

    Thing could get interesting-
    sure wish we had stayed out of ME
    learn to conserve earlier-
    Oh well
     
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  2. ALS

    ALS Super Moderator Staff Member

    We'll be OK with our North American output, Canada, U.S. and Mexico combined, on the other hand the E.U. and Asia will be royally screwed. If there is a major long term war between the Arabs and Persians. Iran will lose because the Arabs only hate the Persians a little less than the Israelis. And if the Iranians are dumb enough to drag the Israelis into the conflict it will go even worse to them. The Arabs I don't think would have a problem being a "temporary" ally with Israel to take down the nut cases running Iran.

    Still those of us that took the long term investment in energy conservation to heart won't be as screwed as those who think cheap oil oil is forever.
    The problems in the Middle East right now is being caused by the cheap oil. These fiefdoms are finding it harder and harder to pacify the hooligans at the gates,
    with out the oil revenues to pay for all the free stuff they've promised. They all need $80 oil to balance their budgets and that includes Russia.
     
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  3. rhwinger

    rhwinger Well-Known Member

    Full disclosure: After experiencing the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, wasting 8 months of my life in the Indian Ocean during the Iranian Hostage Crisis, witnessing Exxon Valdez, etc..my perception on this issue might be colored a bit.

    I really wish we could let the Middle Eastern folks fix their own problems. We repeatedly go in guns blazing with the idea that we will make it better, and we repeatedly come back out covered in $hit.

    The Saudi's really aren't our friends, IMHO. Witness 9/11. They are probably just the ones that hate us the least, except maybe Israel. But we have to tip toe around the whole region because, even now, Middle Eastern politics has a definite linkage to oil prices. Just one more disproportionate factor to yo yo everything related to a commodity that runs our economy, our way of life.

    I wish I could have purchased a Tesla, but it would have been a really bad move financially for the family. Maybe some day a Tesla's cost won't be measured in multiples of annual income. I compromised, but tried to do the best thing.

    Hopefully America will open it's eyes and realize that cheap oil is, in the long run, expensive, and then commit to change. Until then, our economy, politics, environment - probably the planet - will be subject to needless gyrations, or worse.

    I'm just glad that I have an opportunity to hang out with folks like you who are also looking for and trying to make a change.

    Thanks,

    Bob
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2016
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  4. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    Al
    In the not too distant past-up to 1978-the Shah-and during the Iran Contra affair-meaning well into the Ai-A-Toll-A era
    the Iranians and the Israelis were ALLIES.
    Israel sided with Iran druring the Iraq Iran war-sold replacement parts to the Iranians-
    the Iranians had an all USA equipped Air Force etc-F-14'S I think
    Plus they had Cobra gunships-
    my brother was stationed in Iran- Esfahan- about 1975- for a year training their gunship pilots(he was unimpressed-and even LESS impressed by his last group of helicopter pilot students(2009)-some of whom were Saudis-OFFICERS-who would show up LATE and even SKIP class!!

    My guess is the average Iranian man in the street hates USA- LESS than they hate Sunni Arabs-
    persians arabs enemies since 600 BC-maybe longer-and persians shia enemies of ALL Sunni since maybe 700 AD
    about 550BC Cyrus the persian conquered Babylon and freed the jews who were in captivity/slavery there-
    long memories in that section of the world-it is a jewish holiday of some sort

    We have only been casual enemies of the Iranians since 1979- no wars against them-directly-and violent deaths on both sides-about even
    their proxy bombed marine barracks in lebanon -230 killed
    and we shot down their civilian airliner-over 300 killed(pilgrims on way to Mecca-)

    Israel and Iran haven't fought any wars-no real blood feud-
    and they both bitterly HATE SUNNI ARABS
    I'm optimistic in respect to Israel/Iran
    Pessimistic in respect to Iran and Arab neighbors


    Bob-
    Right OIL isn't cheap-almost all our problems in the middle east are rooted in our dependence on oil-especially ME oil
    The Iraq war #2 cost $1 TRILLION- 5000 dead soldiers-literally uncounted numbers of arabs
    We could do OK -now-on just USA and Canadian oil-

    Miserable part of the world-and we made it worse-
     
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  5. EdwinTheMagnificent

    EdwinTheMagnificent Legend In His Mind

    So far.
     
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  6. priusCpilot

    priusCpilot George

    Let me say quite simply that the US Gov is ALL WAYS in it for the money. The militarily industrial complex run our policies and our puppet politicians.

    Sunni wahabi are the worst POS ever. The MIC loves them! Isreal loves them! After all they give excuses to go to war.

    9/11 was a GREAT way to really kick it all off for the MIC. Soooo much money has been made from 9/11 and all the BS wars that were started because of it only as the excuses.

    The Shias are WAY more moderate then any other muslin group. Iran has been fu@k from Chruch Hill on up for it's oil and isn't going to take it anymore. It's not going to be a vassal or a bitch to know one! They are still suffering from the nerve agents given to Saddam buy the US Gov. Can you believe the hypocrisy!!

    The zionest love this all! They make money and let everyone fight and kill each other for there benefit as well.

    Oh and don't get me started on the Mongrel Mutt Hybrid Mish Mash Mongol Turk Mix POS!
    Those ISIS loving basters in the illegitimate forced assimilated country by the mongol hordes!

    God bless you Mr Putin and the Russian people for standing up to the US Gov/Saudi/Qatar/Turkey/Isreal/UK/France/Jordan supported proxy ISIS.

    "Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It both emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind. And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather, the citizenry, infused with fear and blind by patriotism, will offer up all of their rights unto the leader and gladly so. How do I know? For this is what I have done. An I am Caesar."
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2016
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  7. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    You overestimate Israel's "love" for Sunni.
    And they have long memories in that part of the world
    Jewish holiday celebrating their delivery from (I think) the Babylonians -by the Persians(Cyrus I think)
    This Iran vs Israel dust up -over the NUKE- is just a blip-
    They BOTH know that the various Sunni elements are the true believer FANATICS-enemies
    Iran certainly isn't building the bomb for an Megido end of times battle with Israel- it would be the end of them-both-
    Iran's real enemy is-as always-THE ARABS- who are now mostly Sunni-and they are lead by the truly Monstrous House Of Saud
    Luckily for Israel Iran and USA- their armed forces- are useless-poorly lead (Officers skipping training classes)
    25,000,000 people in Saudi Arabia-
    probably only 10,000 pure House of Saud -the tribe is bigger-but not 1,000,000-
    lower level members work in police state activities
    Foreigners do all the"not police state work" work-labor engineers MDs fixing cars plumbing etc

    I favor Russia-and our republicans and Democrats-are fools for wanting to restart the cold war
    Ukraine-too bad for them-but they have been dealing with their russian neighbors for 100's of years-not our business-
    for us-no upside to interfering

    and yes I favor Putin's Syrian action-
    but I'm not putting him up for canonization-typical russian leader
     
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  8. alster

    alster Well-Known Member

    It would be great if could use electricity for our transportation needs. In the future this may happen as electricity, has no weight, oil products do.

    If someday we find a way to store electricity in a compact form that say the size of a normal shoe box could store 1,000 KWH or more of electricity
    and weigh nearly nothing. Until then we are pretty much hooked on oil.

    I remember Rush Limbaugh a couple of years ago say, when you can have a fully loaded Boeing 747 jet take off climb 40,000 feet, fly 500 MPH, and land 8,000-10,000
    miles away at its destination just on electric power you will have something.

    For those of us who doubt that storing 1,000 KWH of electricity is unobtainable think of this; If I told you 30-35 years ago you can store 10,000 photos on the size and space
    of your fingernail you would tell me I was crazy. Today its reality and so common nobody even gives this technology a second thought...
     
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  9. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    Alster
    I crudely calculated-while back-waaay off probably
    That $5 TRILLION 1/5 the complete waste Iraq war-
    on wind turbines-it was 1 MILLION TURBINES-big-3-5 MWH rating-
    would be enough to supply ALL our electricity needs
    Not all our power needs-but most of our power use is electricity
    So just skipping that war-would have allowed us to make a good start
    and the installation and maintenance-couldn't reasonably be outsources-same story on the infrastructure

    Of course the problem is always-wind doesn't always blow-and how do you STORE excess capacity
    Your point-storage will change in the future-
    besides something "old school" like pumping WATER uphill-tower- them letting to flow downhill -turbine-
    or even hydrolyzing water to H2
    Might work-
    and if we had electric cars-excess capacity could be "stored" in them-
    give a good price-opposite of what Wayne's state does- for topping up during excess capacity times
    Even Houses could have storage banks-

    Anyway the $1 TRILLION 5000 soldiers killed- perhaps 100,000 seriously injured /disabled
    plus the other vets that use the services-and disability payments-
    LOTTA $$ wasted

    anyway we have the best potential wind capacity- and if we ever figure out how to extract it from waves/tides-we have that too
     
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  10. xcel

    xcel PZEV, there's nothing like it :) Staff Member

    Hi All:

    From the 40,000' perspective, the Syria thing is a complete mess and there is not a good outcome so staying out of it sounds best to me.

    The U.S. and Israeli MIC loves this crap as they can almost plan their profits out by rattling the saber every few months. Anyone notice the Military budget went up in the proposed budget plan again. All while we sit on the largest of everything on the planet so obviously we need more.

    About oil... The world it still consuming more every year so this price free fall was engineered. I suspected it is still us to work down both Russia's and Iran's financial wherewithal to screw around in the world.

    U.S. and World Oil Consumption - 2005 - 2014

    If anyone believes fracking and new finds in the Gulf is our long term savior, think again. They will decline just like Alaska declined and we had better continue moving to a far less oil intensive solution regardless of what some believe. Have to hand it to CARB/EPA for standing their ground on CO2 emissions. Even with low fuel prices, the OEMs are building some damn fine efficient automobiles and the future targets appear to be solid.

    The unfortunate part of this low oil price is the U.S. new car mix has moved back under 25 mpg. We do not need this.

    I got into a minor flairup in a private Automotive Industry Group on FB about the FSP rearing its ugly head. A lot of the Auto people do not like to hear about this and love to see people buying whatever they want. I posted about the geopolitical, environmental and personal finance aspects of buying "stupid" and few there like to hear about the problems related to the consumers wants vs needs.

    Tesla and their $100k offering are BS for the average laymen and anyone that thinks an 80 to 200 mile EV is the answer has not done the math with $2.00 to $4.00 fuel either. The new Prius is to darn efficient making the plug irrelevant for the time being.

    With Li-Ion costs below $150/kWh, you would think the OEMs would let go of some of the $7,500 subsidy. They are not so PHEVs are still to pricey compared to the new reality as well. If the Fed Credit were removed, watch PHEV/BEV prices normalize to a far more affordable level.

    Answer? The 16 Prius/16 Sonata/17 Ioniq are better - will be better - than ever before and maybe a far more affordable 17 Prius PHEV-30/16 Sonata PHEV-27/17 Ioniq PHEV-50 as an insurance policy against the BS being played with let's go gettem in the Middle East.

    [​IMG]

    Wayne
     
  11. phoebeisis

    phoebeisis Well-Known Member

    The below-just my usual paranoid rantings-must miss waste of time for most folks

    Wayne
    Yes I certainly agree-
    this plunge was the Saudis -our "ally" ha,ha- doing-in this order of importance
    1) Screw Iran-their ancient Persian Shia enemy-drop the oil price -tank Iran's ability to "project power-build NUKES-keep their population happy"
    2)Screw Russia-for backing their Alawite/Shia enemy Assad in Syria
    3)Screw our domestic industry-they KNOW our industry will shut down wells at certain prices-and it will take a HUGE prolonged spike to re-open those wells-retrain workers- yeah this is a nice bonus
    If the Saudi were strictly dollars and cents SENSE motivated-
    they would have RESTRICTED their oil output when the price dropped-
    kept some of that resource in the ground-for future revenue and MUCH higher prices.

    We-USA- have NEVER clearly seen any of the PRICE spikes-not 1973 1979-1984 not the run up to 2008
    Our prognosticators look to the future-and not unreasonably-predict a near future ceiling of $60/barrel-like Al says
    But-they ALWAYS ignore the fact that oil
    IS NOT REALLY a FREE MARKET commodity
    The PRICE is ALWAYS manipulated-speculators-
    and supply can always be restricted.
    If the ME explodes- IRAN and Saudi- attack oil facilities- straight of hornuz
    It won't matter that China is tanking
    Specualtors will IMMEDIATELY-intentionally- bid the price up-
    and why in the WORLD will our multinational Oil Corps-immediately start opening wells??
    To MAKE LESS $$- drive price down.

    Just like Prescription drugs prices are being manipulated-to some extent because we -USA- don't control foreign based producers-can't really over see their gentle men's (ha,ha) agreements to "you quit making erythromycin-I will quit making-tetramycin(sic)"

    There is no FREE MARKET-never has been-never will be-manipulation is always the order of the day
    Price and profits- DON'T determine everything-
    National Interests-trump pure market forces
    and ramping up production-at HUGE COST-is not a good strategy for Corps dealing with what is a limited supply

    In a FREE MARKET -this is what can-and does happen-completely legal
    The REAL REASON the drug manufacturers set the price of the break thru HCV drugs-at $100,000 to cure-80 days
    $1000 per pill one a day-plus other costs
    is if they set it at $1000 per treatment($12 per pill) 4X10^6 infected in USA- meaning-sales would be just $4 BILLION to cure the entire country
    them since no one is infected-there would be VERY FEW NEW CASES for their new drug
    no new sales
    so they priced it-sooo high-that MOST people could never get cured-
    and that is LEGAL-immoral-but that is what you get
    short term market forces-in prescription drugs-cause unfortunate events
    the 4 MILLION in USA infected by a serious contagious illness-WON'T get cured
    because there is NO PROFIT motivation to cure them
    and every motivation to restrict supply by keeping the price up
    Yeah-this is how the world works

    Oh Trump-to his credit-didn't favor the Iraq war-he is a $%&# of course but….-
    That pretty boy Rubio- and that mean spirited former Canadian citizen Cruz- still want MORE boots on ground-stupid SOBs-I
    Hillary-pushing Gadaffi out-turning Libya into a hell hole-not much sense either
    What a choice-MIDGETS when we need Roosevelt(either one)-Lincoln-
    Heck Nixon was a pretty good leader-so was LBJ-but we get midgets
    Bill Clinton-much better than this bunch-
     

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