Already past Peak Oil?

Discussion in 'Emissions' started by Carcus, Dec 13, 2011.

  1. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

  2. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Related:

    Explaining High Oil Prices
    The U.S. economy is no longer what's driving the market
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203833104577072301052759854.html

    ""Emerging markets will probably continue to grow faster than advanced economies," José Sérgio Gabrielli de Azevedo, chief executive of Brazilian oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, said earlier this month at the Platts Global Energy Outlook Forum in New York. "The growth pattern of those economies is more energy-intensive than [first-world] growth." He added: "The era of cheap oil is over."

    Tight global supplies are expected to keep prices high as well, even with the resumption of flows from Libya, where for months the revolution halted prewar exports of 1.6 million barrels a day. As much as one-half of Libya's former oil exports are expected to be restored by year-end, but there is still little slack in the global system.

    Says Mr. Hamilton, "As long as growth from the emerging economies continues, as long as world production fails to keep up with that, we're going to see upward pressure on prices.""


    / note also, the ramping up of exported refined products (i.e. diesel from the U.S.) and the reversal of the oil pipeline(s) from Cushing, OK to the Gulf. This is 'markets 101' telling us "drill baby drill" and "I pledge $2 gas for Americans" is B.S. .... it's a world market.
    // also worth noting that 2011 is the first year we've seen gas prices go high and stay high all year long -- no breaks.
     
  3. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Super Moderator Staff Member

    Depends on how you define high. We peaked close to $4/gallon in the depths on the Libyan crisis. Last fill was $3.299. The East Coast has Transatlantic supplies.
     
  4. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    "American drivers this week broke a record that will bring them no joy.


    They collectively spent more than $448 billion on gasoline since the beginning of the year, according to the Oil Price Information Service, putting the previous record for gas expenditures — set in 2008 — in the rearview mirror with weeks of driving still to go."

    Oil prices rise. US costs, OPEC sales hit records
    http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/1210/Oil-prices-rise.-US-costs-OPEC-sales-hit-records

    We've seen higher spikes, but this is the highest year over year on record.
     
  5. Right Lane Cruiser

    Right Lane Cruiser Penguin of Notagascar

    And people wonder why I'm serious about getting an electric car...
     
  6. herm

    herm Well-Known Member

    but thats in Obama dollars.. it will get much worse.
     
  7. NeilBlanchard

    NeilBlanchard Well-Known Member

    Tars sands are proof that we have passed peak oil. Drilling in 5 miles below the surface of the ocean also proves we have passed peak oil.
     
  8. herm

    herm Well-Known Member

    Peak cheap oil.. the stuff in Saudi Arabia that costs $2.50 a barrel to produce.

    Just remember that $40-50 a barrel makes CTL and GTL viable, and $20 a barrel makes tar sands viable.. but once we run out of tar sands, coal and gas then its a different story.
     
  9. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    Isn't it the same story?

    Without a "swing producer" (Texas till 1970, Saudi from reagan till 2005) Oil prices rise unrestricted until demand destruction balances price.

    Do you think we're going to get a new swing producer with enough excess capacity (and desire) to put us back to 'cheap' ?
     
  10. herm

    herm Well-Known Member

    I have no idea, I want an electric car :)
     
  11. xcel

    xcel PZEV, there's nothing like it :) Staff Member

    Hi Carcus:

    Just my opinion but I suspect the end of "Cheap Oil" will see demand destruction from the emerging market economies first. Europe tolerates $8.00 fuel pretty well as evidenced by the speeds they travel on the highways. Quite literally $0.25 to $0.50/mile thrown out the window at 100 mph and yet they still do it. An Indian or Chinese worker living on < $10K a year simply cannot afford to waste it like that. As prices rise, a new balance will be reached but it will be painful for everyone. It will be out of reach for a citizen of an emerging market economy.

    Wayne
     
  12. lolder

    lolder Well-Known Member

    Don't pin your hopes on electric cars for a while yet. About 70 % of US electricity is produced by fossil fuels all of which produce new CO2. It takes the same amount of energy to move a vehicle down the road no matter where it comes from. Many ICE vehicles now are cleaner burning than fossil fueled power plants. The CO2 produced is the same. The cars of the future must be lighter, smaller and sleeker and traffic jams must be eliminated.
     
  13. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member


    Yeah, that's a tough one to judge. On the flip side, europeans drive less miles than we do and their cars are roughly twice as efficient.

    A bazillion Indians probably will be happy with a couple hundred gallons a year to put in their Tata Nano. That's still going to have a big impact on world wide demand even though each individual may not be purchasing high volumes of fuel (compared to U.S. drivers).

    Of course, food prices, govt subsidized fuel prices and everything else are involved in the equation. So it's very difficult to move out of general analysis on how oil price vs demand will play out.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2011
  14. NeilBlanchard

    NeilBlanchard Well-Known Member

  15. rfruth

    rfruth Well-Known Member

    Interesting that Iran threatened to block crude transportation through the Strait of Hormuz :eyebrow:
     
  16. Carcus

    Carcus Well-Known Member

    We are threatening to shut their economy down -- prelude to war. They are threatening to shut the Strait down -- prelude to war.
     

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