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The U.S. Economic Crisis: Three Growth Scenarios

When the third quarter gross domestic product report came out on Oct. 30, most of the attention focused on the drop in real consumer spending, the first since 1991. Especially in a Presidential election year, the pain for consumers is the most relevant political fact. But to know where this crisis is headed over the next year or so, you need to watch a different number: the size of the U.S. trade deficit. In the third quarter, the U.S. had a trade deficit of $707 billion?equal to 5% of GDP at an annual rate.

The U.S. Economic Crisis: Three Growth Scenarios
xcel, Nov 3, 2008
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